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Russia's Rusal forecasts global aluminum deficit to widen to 1.1 mil mt in 2017

http://www.chemnet.com   Mar 20,2017 Platts
Russian aluminum producer Rusal said Friday it expects global aluminum deficit to widen to 1.1 million mt in 2017 from 0.6 million mt in 2016, as strong demand growth is seen outpacing the increase in supply.

Rusal put global aluminum demand in 2017 at 62.7 million mt, up 5% from a year ago, and supply at 61.6 million mt, up 4.3%.

China's aluminum demand is expected grow by 6.7% to 33.5 million mt in 2017, while demand outside of China is forecast to rise by 3.3% to 29.2 million mt.

But China's supply will stay relatively tight due to the government's new anti-pollution measures. Production in China is expected to rise by 6% to 34.3 million mt in 2017.

"The country may still have a high risk of supply tightness due to the new environmental measures against pollution including outlined capacity closures and a significant decline in new capacity additions ... similar to ... the steel sector," Rusal said.

Production outside China will rise 2.4% in 2017 to 27.3 million mt, Rusal said.

In 2016, global aluminum demand grew by 5.5% to 59.7 million mt. China posted a 7.6% growth to 31.4 million mt, while demand outside of China rose 3.4% to 28.3 million mt.

China's economic growth remained stable, with gross domestic product increasing 6.7% year on year and industrial output also rising by 6%.

In North America, Donald Trump's win in the US presidential election resulted in economic optimism, Rusal said.

New housing starts increased by nearly 5% year on year in 2016 and car output increased by 1.2%.

Rusal put 2016 global supply at 59 million mt, up 3.6% year on year.

China's aluminum output increased to 32.3 million mt in 2016, up 5.5% from the previous year, due to capacity ramp-ups in the fourth quarter of 2016, while production outside China was 26.7 million mt, up 2.2%.
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