SunSirs: China Methanol Market Continues to be Weak

https://www.chemnet.com   Jun 19,2024 SunSirs

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business club, from June 11 to 18 (as of 15:00), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2,600 RMB/ton to 2,515 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 3.24% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 14.81%, and a year-on-year increase of 21.29%. The domestic methanol market is dominated by weak operation, the overall market supply is relatively sufficient, the demand is weak, and the downstream is dominated by on-demand procurement.

As of the closing on June 18, the closing price of methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The main contract of methanol futures 2409 opened at 2,520 RMB/ton, with the highest price of 2,528 RMB/ton and the lowest price of 2,510 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,511 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, down 6 or 0.24% from the settlement of the previous trading day. The trading volume was 465,650 hands, the position was 733,079 hands, and the daily position increase was -9,430.

In terms of cost, at present, most of the coal mines in the region of origin maintain normal production status, mainly long-term cooperative supply, and the overall coal supply is relatively stable. With the rise of temperature, the inventory of power plants has been consumed, but it is still in a relatively sufficient state. Some purchasing demands have been released, which has a certain support for the coal price. It is expected that the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. Methanol cost side favorable factors.

Demand side, downstream chlorides: Guangxi Jinyi science and technology plant operated under reduced load, short-term deposit and withdrawal were expected to be negative, and the demand for methane chlorides increased; Downstream acetic acid: Hebei Jiantao and Ineos may have recovery expectations, and the demand for acetic acid will increase; Downstream MTBE: Qingzhou Tianan and Ningxia baofengcun maintenance plan, MTBE demand reduced; Downstream formaldehyde: the shutdown of Henan Xinxing formaldehyde plant reduced the demand for formaldehyde; Downstream dimethyl ether: Jiujiang xinlianxin plant was shut down, and Yima Kaixiang plant was shut down. There is no restart plan for now, and the demand for dimethyl ether is reduced. The impact of methanol demand side is mixed.

On the supply side, Yulin Yankuang, Shaanxi Jingyi chemical, Jiutai new materials, and Yangmei Fengxi plant maintenance; Production reduction of Guangju new material device; Anhui Linhuan, Datang Duolun, Shenhua Bayannaoer, Shaanxi Huangling, Yanchang Zhongmei and Aowei QianRMB plants were restored. The recovery volume is more than the loss volume, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors on methanol supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on June 17, the Asian MTBE market was closed on the occasion of the Hajj Festival. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by 16.79 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at 980.29-980.64 dollars/ton (276.14-276.24 cents/gallon). The closing price of MTBE in Europe rose by US $1.75/t from the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $954.49-954.99/t.

It is predicted that the market supply will gradually recover, the downstream demand will not show any bright spots, and the demand for main olefins will remain weak. Methanol analysts from the SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will remain weak in the short term.

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