SunSirs: Insufficient Demand, the Xylene Market Declined

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 17,2024 SunSirs

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the xylene market first rose and then fell in the first half of October. On October 16th, the benchmark price of xylene was 5,950 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from 5,960 RMB/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the xylene market saw an overall rebound, with external and crude oil markets rising during the holiday period, driving the domestic market to make up for the holiday. The xylene market saw a rebound of about 5%. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market was generally low, lacking downstream support, and the xylene market lacked the driving force to continue rising. Subsequently, with the decline of the external market and the general correction of the domestic market, the market maintained rigid demand trading, and prices continued to decline. As of October 16th, the overall operation was weak.

Analysis review

On the cost side: The international oil price market has risen, and during China's National Day holiday, international oil prices significantly increased. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East had an impact, which was good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remained tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. However, concerns about the global economy and demand outlook still exist in the market, coupled with the end of the US oil peak and the increase in US crude oil inventories suppressing the rise in crude oil prices. Overall, the trend of crude oil prices has risen during the cycle. As of October 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 73.83 US dollars per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was 77.46 US dollars per barrel.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec's xylene quotations mostly rose first and then fell. As of October 16th, the company was operating normally, with stable plant production and sales. The company's quotations remained unchanged from the previous day. As of October 16th, East China Company quoted 5,850 RMB/ton, North China Company quoted 5,850-5,900 RMB/ton, South China Company quoted 5,900-6,000 RMB/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5,700 RMB/ton.

Demand side: The trend of xylene was still weak, and the support on the demand side was weak

On September 23rd, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7,800 RMB/ton for xylene, which remained unchanged from the price on September 16th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at 840-842 US dollars/ton as of September 20th, a cumulative decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from834-836 US dollars/ton on September 17th.

Market outlook

The crude oil market has been operating weakly recently, with weak cost support. In terms of supply, the recent accumulation of port inventory in East China has had a bearish impact on the market. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products was weak, and the purchasing intention was biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the recent bearish impact on the spot market was significant, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate to be weaker in the short term.

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