SunSirs: Demand Driven, Recent Price Trends of China Refined Gasoline and Diesel have Diverged

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 21,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent trend of domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices has diverged. As of the 18th, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 7,279.4 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.74% from the price of 7,562 RMB/ton on the 10th; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,676.4 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.59% from the price of 6,637 RMB/ton on the 10th.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market price is declining, and the cost aspect is decreasing

As of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.67 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.45 per barrel. Recently, the trend of crude oil prices has fallen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market prices have slightly decreased, and the domestic refined oil market is weak.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining industry starts to rise, supply side increases

Recently, some maintenance facilities in Shandong have restarted, resulting in a slight increase in the operating rate of Shandong's refineries. The average operating rate of Shandong's refineries is around 60%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 82%. The operating rate of refineries continues to rise, and the supply of refined oil products has increased, which has had a certain negative impact on the trend of gasoline and diesel.

Demand side: The price trend of FAW diesel varies depending on the demand

In terms of gasoline, the National Day holiday was favorable for delisting, and gasoline terminal consumption returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main trend. The support for essential needs weakened, and intermediaries replenished their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has brought certain impacts on gasoline demand, resulting in a decline in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, after the opening of the Bohai Sea, the increase in demand for marine fuel has provided some support for the market. In addition, the previous increase in agricultural diesel has led to a slight improvement in outdoor project construction, resulting in a decline in diesel inventory. Traders and terminal enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations, and overall, diesel prices have slightly increased.

Currently, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The traditional peak season in the United States has ended, and global economic data has performed poorly. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have boosted the oil market, and the crude oil market is mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is relatively abundant, and the demand for gasoline is weak. In addition, the impact of new energy cannot be underestimated, and the price trend of the gasoline market has declined; In terms of diesel demand, as the traditional peak season approaches and diesel usage gradually increases, traders and end enterprises are cautious in their procurement operations. In the short term, the diesel market may rise, but the increase is limited.

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