SunSirs: The Supply and Demand Fundamentals are Weak, China PVC Market Fell from a High Level Last Week

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 21,2024 SunSirs

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the PVC spot market did not continue the post holiday bull market last week (10.14-18), and prices stopped rising and experienced varying degrees of decline. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5,326 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.84% during the week.

After the holiday, the PVC spot market continued to rise in price driven by the futures market. However, since the beginning of this week, due to the lack of fundamental positive fundamentals, the upward trend has not continued, and PVC prices have turned from rising to falling. Currently, the market has entered a downward trend. On the one hand, last week, with the decline of futures market and the linked downward trend of spot PVC market, coupled with the loose performance of supply and demand, the operating rate of manufacturers in October has generally increased, and more than half of the manufacturers are operating at full capacity. Market shipment pressure has increased, and dealer offers have continued to decline. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5,250-5,400 RMB/ton.

In terms of calcium carbide, the market for calcium carbide remained weak in September and rebounded in October. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide has fallen by 6.17% since October. Overall, the calcium carbide market showed a rebound trend during the week, but prices did not continue to rise this week, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of raw calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that PVC supply is sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than before the National Day holiday. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory are at a high level. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

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