SunSirs: China Methanol Market is Experiencing a Narrow Upward Trend

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 28,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 21st to 25th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,400 RMB/ton to 2,445 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.91% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.14%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.24%. After the domestic methanol market fell to a low level, it rebounded. In the early stage, methanol prices fell to a low level, and buying gas improved, which gave the market a certain boost. In addition, with the recent increase in shipping costs, methanol prices have rebounded and risen accordingly.

As of the close on October 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2,447 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,461 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,440 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,453 RMB/ton in the closing session, up 17 RMB/ton or 0.70% from the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 426,911 lots and a holding volume of 644,133 lots, with a daily increase of -8,654.

In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating steadily recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production, mainly implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply level is stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chlorides: Dongyue and Jinling in Shandong will gradually resume production, leading to an increase in chloride demand; Acetic acid production remains at a high level, with no equipment maintenance plan yet, and stable demand for methanol; Formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and MTBE units currently have no plans to start or stop, and there is little fluctuation in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of Shanxi Yaxin equipment; Xinjiang's new industrial facilities have reduced production; The Yankuang plant in Xinjiang has been restored. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of October 24th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00-347.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 111.00 to 112.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 407.00-408.00 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, the supply of goods from mainland China will continue to increase, and ports may likely continue to accumulate inventory. There will be little change in downstream demand. SunSirs methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market will mainly consolidate.

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