SunSirs: The Market Momentum has not Improved, China PC Prices Fall

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 30,2024 SunSirs

According to the bulk ranking data of SunSirs, the domestic PC market was weak and consolidated at the end of October, and the spot prices of some brands have fallen below the pre holiday level. As of October 29th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16,033.33 RMB/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.41% compared to early October.

On the supply side: At the end of October, there was limited change in the overall operating rate of PC in China. As of the time of writing, the industry average operating rate has slightly decreased from 82% in mid October to around 81%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60,000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and the good news is gradually dissipating. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A significantly decreased at the end of October. The direct raw materials of bisphenol A, phenol and acetone, have stopped falling and are expected to warm up in a narrow range. The easing of costs has not released any positive news in the short term, but has increased the production pressure of bisphenol A. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the load of the bisphenol A industry returned to be relatively high, and the current on-site supply of goods has increased. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season "Golden September" terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues until the end of October. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. At this point, the traditional peak season for PC sales this year has come to an end, and the demand side is unable to provide strong support for spot prices.

In the early stage, the PC market experienced a rebound in gains, but recently prices have been weak and moving forward. Although there are signs of a halt in the upstream bisphenol A market, it has rapidly declined in the early stages, with weak support on the PC cost side. The load of domestic aggregation plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Currently, the center of gravity of domestic PC prices has fallen below early October. Downstream peak season consumption has not been realized, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. At the same time, the positive sentiment of the macro commodity market has weakened, and the weak reality of the PC market has not improved. Although PC prices have fallen to the low point range of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, SunSirs predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.

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