SunSirs: China BR Market is Weak and Declining in October

https://www.chemnet.com   Nov 01,2024 SunSirs

Since October, the BR market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of October 31, the BR market price in East China was 15,580 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.52% from 16,490 RMB/ton at the beginning of October. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of BR has dropped significantly; The overall production of BR remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for BR. During the month, the supply price of BR has gradually decreased. As of October 31st, the mainstream prices of BR in Qilu, Yangtze, Daqing, and Sichuan in East China were between 15,450-15,650 RMB/ton.

Since October, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of BR has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of October 31st, the price of butadiene was 12,325 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10.04% from 13,700 RMB/ton at the beginning of October.

Demand side: Since October, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is supported by the rigid demand of the BR market. As of October 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 79%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 59%.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly decrease, leading to a decrease in the cost of BR; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for Shunding rubber may experience weak fluctuations in the short term.

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