2025 Oil and Gas Industry Report Released: China's Refining and Petrochemical Sector Accelerates High-End Transformation, Becoming a Stabilizer for the Global Market

On February 3, the "2025 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" was released in Beijing. The report indicates that China's oil and gas exploration and development investment remained high in 2025, with both reserves and production reaching record highs—crude oil output reached 216 million tons, and natural gas production (including coal-to-gas) hit 263.8 billion cubic meters, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth exceeding 10 billion cubic meters; refining and ethylene capacities reached 939 million tons/year and 62.7 million tons/year, respectively, both ranking first globally. With the transformation of vehicle energy structure and the upgrading of integrated refining and chemical operations, China's petroleum consumption structure continues to optimize, the chemical new materials industry is developing rapidly, and the self-sufficiency rate of high-end chemical materials has increased to over 80%.

The report forecasts future industry developments: in 2026, China's petroleum consumption will see slight growth, natural gas consumption growth will rebound, and refining capacity is expected to increase by 15 million tons/year, reaching a total scale of over 950 million tons/year. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, import substitution, support for emerging industries, and green circular development will become the three core engines driving the growth of new materials demand. It is projected that by 2030, China's demand for chemical new materials will exceed 65 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 10%.

Globally, the oil and gas supply and demand landscape was generally relaxed in 2025, with international oil prices fluctuating downward, the natural gas market shifting from tight to loose, and regional consumption showing significant divergence. The average annual price of Brent crude oil was $68.19 per barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 14.62%, while global crude oil and natural gas production increased by 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. Energy consumption in the Asia-Pacific region grew by 2.7%, contributing nearly 80% of the global consumption increase, whereas Europe and Eurasia saw a decline of 2.0%. Global ethylene capacity is increasingly concentrated in Asia, further highlighting China's industrial competitiveness.

Lu Ruquan, President of the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, stated that the global oil and gas market's relaxed trend will continue in 2026. With stable economic development, China will serve as a ballast and stabilizer for the global oil and gas market. The report predicts that, under the baseline scenario for 2026, the average annual price of Brent crude oil will range between $60-65 per barrel, with natural gas demand maintaining low to moderate growth. Global ethylene capacity will increase by 9.3 million tons/year, of which China will account for 8.05 million tons/year, further strengthening the global supporting role of the petrochemical industry.