SunSirs: Costs Rose and Demand Increased, the Price of Isooctanol Rose Sharply in January

The price of isooctanol increased significantly in January

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7,880 RMB/ton, a significant increase from the price of 6,916.67 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a 13.93% increase. On February 4th, the price of isooctanol was 7,716.67 RMB/ton, a decrease from the price of 7,880 RMB/ton on January 31st, representing a 2.07% decrease. In January, the operating rate of isooctanol enterprises increased to 95%, resulting in ample supply. However, some isooctanol enterprises underwent maintenance in the latter half of the month, causing the operating rate to drop to 90%. The significant increase in propylene prices provided strong cost support for isooctanol. Therefore, the price of isooctanol rose sharply in January. In February, the price of plasticizers fell from its high point, and the price of propylene also declined, leading to decreased costs and reduced demand. Consequently, the price of isooctanol fluctuated downwards in February.

Isooctanol manufacturers' operating rates had fallen from their previous high levels

In January, isooctanol manufacturers increased production, with domestic isooctanol plants operating at around 95% capacity. Isooctanol production rose, but in the latter half of the month, some isooctanol companies underwent maintenance, causing the operating rate to drop to around 90%. This reduction in supply continued to support higher isooctanol prices.

The cost of the raw material propylene increased significantly

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of January 31st, the price of propylene was 6,404.33 RMB/ton, a significant increase compared to the price of 5,717.67 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a 12.01% increase. On February 2nd, the price of propylene was 6,391 RMB/ton, a slight decrease compared to the price of 6,421 RMB/ton on January 27th, a decrease of 0.47%. The significant increase in propylene prices in January was driven by rising raw material costs, which in turn supported higher isooctanol prices. However, in the latter part of the month, propylene prices fell, leading to a decrease in isooctanol costs and weakening the upward pressure on isooctanol prices.

Prices of downstream plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of January 31st, the price of DOP was 8,017.50 RMB/ton, a significant increase compared to the price of 7,325.84 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a 9.44% increase. On February 4th, the price of DOP was 7,950.84 RMB/ton, a decrease compared to the price of 8,017.50 RMB/ton on January 31st, representing a 0.83% decrease. In January, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers decreased slightly, with an operating rate of around 63%, resulting in a decrease in DOP production compared to the previous month. Rising costs coupled with decreased supply led to a significant increase in the price of DOP in January, supported by increased demand for isooctanol from downstream industries. In February, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers increased slightly, leading to an increase in the supply of plasticizers. However, as pre-holiday stockpiling came to an end and demand decreased, the price of plasticizers fell in February, with reduced demand support and weaker support from rising isooctanol prices.

Market outlook

According to the data analyst for octanol products at SunSirs, regarding costs, the significant increase in propylene prices, a raw material, has boosted the upward momentum of isooctanol prices. In terms of supply, the operating rate of isooctanol manufacturers has increased, leading to an increase in isooctanol supply. Regarding demand, the operating rate of DOP (dioctyl phthalate) manufacturers has increased, resulting in increased DOP production and stronger support for isooctanol demand. Looking ahead, in February, propylene prices are expected to fall, weakening the cost support for isooctanol. With the Lunar New Year stocking period nearing its end, the operating rate of plasticizer companies is expected to increase slightly in February, maintaining some support for isooctanol demand. However, with weakened cost support and continued demand support, the downward pressure on isooctanol prices will increase, while upward support remains. Therefore, the market is expected to see a weak but stable trend in isooctanol prices.

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