SunSirs: Nickel Prices Experienced Wide Fluctuations and Declined in March

Price trend

According to nickel price monitoring by SunSirs, nickel prices experienced a volatile decline in March. At the beginning of the month, the price stood at 143,216.67 RMB/ton; by the end of the month, it had edged down to 137,683.33 RMB/ton. This represented an overall decrease of 3.86%, while marking a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.

Market analysis

Macroeconomic Outlook: In March, market expectations regarding the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026 underwent a significant revision. Driven by the continued resilience of U.S. economic data and the persistence of sticky inflation, Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance; consequently, the market generally anticipates that the timing of the first rate cut may be postponed until the second half of the year. 

Supply Side: In January and February 2026, the combined nickel pig iron (NPI) metal output from China and Indonesia totaled 303,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.25%; of this total, the output of medium-to-high-grade NPI amounted to 292,600 tons, down 7.49% year-on-year. Indonesia's MHP output for March is projected to decline by 18.61% month-on-month, and the full-year production forecast has been revised downward to a range of 480,000 to 520,000 tons (a reduction of 30,000 to 70,000 tons compared to the original projection).

Regarding demand: In March, the resumption of production at steel mills accelerated; the scheduled output for the 300-series reached 1.9008 million tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 44.1%. Social inventories have been drawn down for three consecutive weeks; however, demand from the downstream real estate sector remains relatively weak, while the home appliance and infrastructure sectors are providing support. Although the production of ternary precursors has experienced a seasonal decline in line with the power battery supply chain, absolute output levels remain at historical highs, thereby providing rigid support for intermediate products.

Market outlook

In summary: In March 2026, the nickel market underwent a substantive shift from "trading on expectations" to "confronting reality." Three major supply-side variables—delays in Indonesia's RKAB approvals, production halts at HPAL projects, and risks to sulfur supplies—converged to propel cost support into the primary driver of nickel prices. Although high inventory levels and weak demand continue to cap upside potential, the upstream concentration of profits within the industry chain and the steepening of the cost curve have effectively established a clear floor for nickel prices.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, the market is poised to enter a verification phase regarding the implementation of policies and the realization of supply-side risks. Should disruptions to sulfur supplies intensify in mid-to-late April—or if the approval process for RKAB work plans continues to lag behind expectations—nickel prices are likely to experience a volatile upward trend driven by rising production costs. Closely monitoring the pace of Indonesia's quota replenishment, shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, and marginal shifts in downstream demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors.

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