SunSirs: The Urea Market Experienced Volatile Upward Trends in March

Price trend

According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of March 31, the benchmark average price for domestic small-to-medium granular urea stood at 1,865 RMB/ton. Compared to the benchmark average of 1,836 RMB/ton recorded on March 1, the domestic urea market price had risen by 1.57%.

Market Analysis

Supply and Demand:

This month, domestic urea market prices trended upward amidst fluctuations. During the first half of March, domestic urea prices moved upward in a volatile manner. Driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the international urea market strengthened, which in turn boosted the domestic futures market. The market was further supported by the peak season for fertilizer use during the domestic spring plowing period; downstream buyers actively replenished their stocks, and manufacturers experienced smooth product shipments. In the second half of March, while the international urea market remained robust, domestic urea prices softened slightly due to the impact of rising inventory levels. Domestic urea plant operating rates remained consistently high, leading to a continuous increase in supply, while demand for top-dressing fertilizers for wheat crops in northern regions began to slow down. Under the influence of domestic policies aimed at ensuring supply stability and price moderation, the scope for price fluctuation in the urea market remained limited.

Market Overview

As of March 31, urea market quotations in the Shandong region ranged from approximately 1,830 to 1,900 RMB/ton; in the Hebei region, quotations were around 1,830–1,880 RMB/ton; in the Henan region, they stood at approximately 1,820–1,860 RMB/ton; and in the Liaoning region, quotations ranged from about 1,850 to 1,900 RMB/ton.

Based on the weekly candlestick chart covering the period from January 5 to March 23, 2026, domestic urea prices exhibited mixed performance—fluctuating between gains and losses—during this cycle. In March, domestic urea prices saw significant gains, with the largest weekly increase of 2.23% recorded during the week of March 9.

Market outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, the urea market has recently stabilized. The current period remains the peak season for fertilizer use during spring plowing; driven primarily by essential downstream demand, market transaction volumes remain robust. Supported by domestic policies aimed at ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, domestic urea market prices are expected to undergo slight consolidation in the short term.

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