SunSirs: With Bullish Factors Still Present, It Is Expected That the Adipic Acid Market Will Rise in April

Price trend

According to monitoring data from SunSirs, since the beginning of March, the market for adipic acid has experienced a dynamic trend—characterized by sharp surges, subsequent corrections, and periods of stabilization—driven by geopolitical conflicts and cost-side support; the overall price increase has exceeded 30%. As April began, the upward momentum in adipic acid prices persisted. On March 1, the average market price for adipic acid stood at 8,300 RMB/ton; by April 2, this average had risen to 10,833 RMB/ton, representing an increase of 30.52%.

How will the adipic acid market unfold in April?

Cost Side: The impact of geopolitical conflicts persists; upstream raw materials—specifically benzene and cyclohexanone—continue to exhibit upward pricing momentum, providing strong support for the rising market trend of adipic acid. On April 1, industry leader Hualu Hengsheng raised its ex-factory price for adipic acid by 400 RMB/ton, bringing it to 11,100 RMB/ton. Cost pressures are gradually being passed down to downstream sectors.

Supply Side: In April, the market saw no new capacity additions. Facilities at several leading domestic adipic acid enterprises remained offline, keeping the overall market operating rate at approximately 60–70%. With supply volumes declining, manufacturers faced no pressure to offload inventory, leading to an increased reluctance to sell.

Demand Side: Operating rates among traditional downstream sectors—such as terminal slurries, shoe sole raw liquids, PA66, and TPU—remain relatively low (below 50%). Cost pass-through is difficult, and acceptance of high prices is low; consequently, terminal demand is unlikely to experience explosive growth and is expected to remain relatively stable.

In summary: Forecasts based on supply and demand fundamentals indicate high production costs, tightening supply, and stable demand, suggesting strong upward momentum for adipic acid in April. From a technical perspective, the market is expected to trend upward at elevated levels, though the extent of the gains may be limited. Consequently, the overall adipic acid market in April is projected to be characterized primarily by volatile upward movement, with prices expected to range between 10,700 and 11,500 RMB/ton.

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