SunSirs: Amidst Weakening Cost Side and Downstream Wait-and-See Dynamics, Polyester Filament Prices Fluctuated at Elevated Levels

According to monitoring data from SunSirs, polyester filament exhibited high-level volatility on April 13, with most quoted prices remaining stable. Amidst a tug-of-war between a weakening cost side and a wait-and-see attitude from downstream sectors, prices are unlikely to stage another significant upward surge.

I. Prices on April 13

POY 150D/48F: 8,950–9,350 RMB/ton

FDY 150D/96F: 9,100–9,650 RMB/ton

DTY 150D/48F: 10,200–10,600 RMB/ton

II. Key Market Drivers

1. Weakening Cost Support: International oil prices have recently retreated, and PTA prices have softened; consequently, the cost support provided by polyester raw materials to filament products has significantly diminished.

2. Sluggish Downstream Demand: While operating rates rebounded during the traditional "Golden March and Silver April" season, activity was largely driven by essential restocking to meet immediate needs. Elevated prices have dampened actual transaction volumes, and the weaving sector remains in a strong wait-and-see mode; overall production-to-sales ratios currently hover at only around 20%.

3. Tight Supply: Plant maintenance activities are concentrated during the spring season, leading to a contraction in effective industry supply; inventory levels remain within a reasonable range, providing a certain degree of floor support for prices.

4. Structural Divergence: Polyester is trending lower, whereas nylon is performing more robustly driven by strong cost support and export demand, creating a contrasting trend between the two sectors.

Market outlook

Short-Term Outlook: The market is expected to fluctuate at elevated levels within a narrow range, exhibiting a slight downward bias. A sharp decline appears unlikely, yet a significant rally seems even more improbable. Fluctuations in crude oil prices and PTA remain the primary influencing factors; consequently, prices are projected to oscillate within a specific range, with limited room for further downside.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.