Four-year high! US average gasoline price breaks $4.50 per gallon

Local time on Tuesday, the U.S. national average price for gasoline broke the $4.50 per gallon mark, climbing to $4.51 per gallon, setting the highest record in nearly four years since July 17, 2022. Affected by the continued escalation of the Iran war, global oil transport chokepoint the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed with poor passage, and the American public faces the pressure of continuously rising oil prices, while relevant agreements to facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain nowhere in sight.

Data from the oil price information platform GasBuddy shows that the national average price for regular unleaded gasoline has stood at a four-year high. In terms of regional differentiation, dragged down by factors such as high taxes and insufficient local refining capacity, the average gasoline price in California is as high as $6.11 per gallon, far exceeding the national average level. Looking at the pace of the increase, since last Thursday, national gasoline prices have risen by 21 cents per gallon; since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, the cumulative increase has reached as high as $1.54 per gallon, showing a rapid momentum in price hikes.

Industry institutions generally warn that supported by multiple international and domestic positive factors, U.S. oil prices still have room to rise, and may soon break through $5 per gallon. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, analyzed that in the context of the failure to reach a ceasefire peace agreement in the Middle East war, the trend of rising oil prices is difficult to reverse;叠加 current U.S. gasoline inventories are at multi-year seasonal lows, further amplifying the upward pressure on oil prices. Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, stated bluntly that if the obstructed state of the Strait of Hormuz continues for another month, the U.S. average gasoline price will likely break through the $5 mark.

Global investment banks have also made assessments on the impact of the energy shock. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that under the Middle East conflict, Southeast Asia faces the most direct energy supply shock, while the U.S. unexpectedly became the second most affected region. The reason is that growth in U.S. domestic refining capacity is limited, the regional refined product market is fragmented, and domestic gasoline and energy products continue to be exported overseas; the superposition of multiple factors continues to push up retail gasoline prices at local gas stations.

To unblock shipping and alleviate supply tightness, U.S. President Trump announced the launch of the "Freedom Plan" on May 3, intending to guide merchant ships to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this plan met with a strong backlash from Iran, and both sides exchanged fire, directly impacting the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement that had been maintained for four weeks. Meanwhile, trapped merchant ships lack trust in the U.S.-led escort plan, and shipping in the Strait remains in a de facto closed state. Subsequently, Trump announced on social media on the evening of the 5th, Eastern Time, a short-term suspension of the "Freedom Plan" to guide the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation further fell into a stalemate.

The U.S. is about to welcome the Memorial Day weekend, and the traditional summer driving season is following close behind, meaning fuel demand will enter a seasonal peak. The soaring oil prices not only increase the cost of living for the public and push up inflation, but will also become a major political risk facing Trump and the Republican Party in the November midterm elections. The livelihood pressure brought by high oil prices and the election pressure are superimposed on each other, making the subsequent trend a focus of market attention.