Goldman Sachs issues a warning: Global oil inventories approaching their lowest level in eight years.

Goldman Sachs recently issued a research report warning that global oil inventories are approaching their lowest level in eight years. Affected by uneven depletion rates and imbalances in regional distribution, compounded by the impact of shipping blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, some regions may experience supply shortages of refined products first, with increasing pressure on the energy market.

The report estimates that covering onshore and offshore crude oil reserves and refined product inventories, current global total oil inventories can meet 101 days of global demand; projecting based on current consumption rates, this figure may fall further to 98 days by the end of May, continuously narrowing the buffer for energy security.

The situation regarding refined product inventories is even more severe. Data shows that before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global refined product inventories could support 50 days of market demand, but this has now contracted to 45 days, with the pace of destocking accelerating significantly.

Goldman Sachs points out that due to shipping obstructions in the Strait of Hormuz and restricted logistics, although the overall global inventory volume remains above the safety benchmark, overall stability masks structural shortages in regions and product categories. Inventories of petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas, as well as aviation kerosene, have declined particularly rapidly, which may subsequently push multiple economies to face increasingly severe pressure from supply shortages.

Regarding the current energy market landscape, international energy companies have also issued warnings. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated bluntly that the supply risks triggered by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz are becoming increasingly prominent. He believes that the core contradiction in the current market is no longer just the level of oil prices, but whether fuel can be secured stably. He predicts that within the coming weeks, the pressure of supply shortages will gradually spread and transmit throughout the global energy system.