Russia cuts its oil production and export forecasts for 2026–2027

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development released its latest forecast on Monday, downgrading expectations for oil and gas production and export volumes over the next three years in the baseline scenario.

Currently, Russia's energy sector is under significant pressure. On one hand, it is affected by sustained Western sanctions; on the other hand, frequent Ukrainian drone attacks on domestic energy infrastructure have caused a decline in crude oil production since early April. Oil and gas taxes account for approximately one-quarter of Russia's federal budget revenue, and Russian oil taxation is based on production rather than export volume. The downward revision of energy prospects has also dragged down overall economic forecasts.

Specific Production and Export Adjustments:

Production: The 2026 crude oil production forecast was lowered by 14.2 million tons to 511 million tons; the 2027 forecast was lowered by 16.6 million tons to 516 million tons.

Exports: The 2026 oil export forecast was lowered by 4.5 million tons to 237.2 million tons; the 2027 forecast was lowered by 16.5 million tons to 227.4 million tons.