900,000 tons of capacity offline! Major maintenance of PX plants in Japan and South Korea concentrated at the end of July

I. Details on Major PX Plant Turnarounds in Japan and South Korea (Total external sales capacity of 900,000 tons/year in both countries)

1. Idemitsu Chiba PX Plant, Japan (400,000 tons/year)

The plant is scheduled for a complete shutdown for a major overhaul on July 29. This maintenance combines the annual planned inspection with the rectification of temporary equipment faults. The turnaround cycle is expected to last 30-35 days, with restart and for resumption of production by the end of August.

This plant is the core capacity for Japan's PX exports, accounting for 14.7% of China's PX imports from Japan. After the plant shutdown, the supply of PX goods from Japan will decrease by approximately 33,000 tons per month. Coupled with the sudden failure and shutdown of another Idemitsu 215,000-ton PX plant in early July, which only gradually resumed load at the end of the month, the overall operating rate of PX plants in Japan fell to a yearly low for July-August under this dual volume reduction.

2. SKGC Incheon PX Plant, South Korea (500,000 tons/year)

The plant will undergo a full shutdown for an annual routine major overhaul around July 25, lasting for 40 days, and will resume normal output in early September.

South Korea is China's largest source of PX imports, accounting for 44.9% of imports. The two PX plants at the SKGC site (400,000 tons and 500,000 tons) are undergoing staggered maintenance. With the shutdown of the 500,000-ton main production line at the end of July, South Korea's monthly PX export volume will decrease by approximately 40,000 tons.

Combined with the completion of maintenance at Lotte Ulsan's 500,000-ton PX plant in June and Hanwha's 1.2 million-ton PX plant scheduled to shut down in mid-August, the overall operating rate of South Korea's PX industry fell below 70% after the SKGC plant shutdown at the end of July, leading to a significant contraction in export supply.

II. Resonance of Domestic and Overseas PX Plant Turnarounds, Concentrated Contraction of Regional Supply

Simultaneous Concentrated Turnarounds of Domestic PX Plants

Shenghong's 4 million tons/year PX plant shut down at the end of June with a 50-day maintenance cycle; Hainan Petrochemical's two PX plants with a total capacity of 1.66 million tons have been shut down for maintenance for 3 months since the end of June; additionally, Weilian's 2 million tons and Fuhai Chuang's 800,000 tons PX plants simultaneously reduced operating loads. With multiple turnarounds overlapping, the monthly domestic PX output in July hit a new low for the year, and the overall PX operating rate in Asia remained only at 73%-75%.

Simultaneous Reduction in Southeast Asia Intensifies Shortage of Goods

Thailand PTTG's 770,000 tons/year PX plant entered maintenance in early July, lasting until mid-August, further compressing the circulating PX supply flowing into the Northeast Asian market.

III. Bullish Logic for PX and PTA Industrial Chain in Late July & Early August

The combined 900,000 tons of PX capacity in Japan and South Korea went offline simultaneously, directly reducing the available circulating PX supply in Asia by 70,000-80,000 tons per month. The supply of overseas imported goods tightened, and domestic port PX inventories will accelerate destocking;

Concentrated turnarounds of multiple large domestic PX plants dragged down local output, causing the domestic PX self-sufficiency rate to decline. Market import demand passively increased, supporting the strengthening of the CFR China PX spot basis;

Although downstream PTA plants also experienced phased turnarounds, the rigid demand from the polyester terminal remained stable. In the short term, the PX market has entered a tight supply-demand balance pattern, and the PXN processing spread has room for recovery.