Up 30,000 yuan/ton in half a month! VC stocks are running low, and battery giants scramble to lock in 90,000 tons of capacity.

Recently, market sentiment for vinylene carbonate (VC), a core additive for lithium batteries, has heated up across the board. Spot prices continue to rise, and the supply-demand pattern across the upstream and downstream industrial chain has completely reversed.

Electrolyte production companies in Central China revealed that in mid-June, the procurement price for VC was only 120,000 yuan/ton, but within just half a month, it rose to 150,000 yuan/ton by the end of the month, with market quotes for scattered orders touching as high as 180,000 yuan/ton. Upstream VC manufacturers continue to release expectations of price hikes, forcing downstream electrolyte manufacturers to prepay for goods in advance to lock in supplies.

Reviewing the price trend within the year, VC experienced a round of increases in the fourth quarter of last year. After a brief callback in the first half of this year, it has once again opened a strong upward channel. Tight supply has directly lowered industry inventory levels. Several companies in the industry revealed that overall industry inventory is maintained at less than 5 days. Leading VC factories prioritize guaranteeing supply for long-term cooperative major clients and basically have no time to undertake small and scattered orders. Amid the supply-demand imbalance, the voice of the industrial chain has shifted upstream. Downstream payment periods are continuously compressing, and cash on delivery is gradually becoming a common industry condition for picking up goods.

The rising market has directly driven a significant improvement in the performance of relevant listed companies. Many companies have issued announcements forecasting half-year report increases, and industry prosperity has been verified by performance:

· Fuxiang Shares turned a profit in the first half of 2026, with a net profit range of 165 million - 215 million yuan. The rise in both volume and price of new energy products such as VC drove revenue growth;

· Yongtai Technology recorded a net profit of 265 million - 330 million yuan in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 350.68% - 461.22%;

· Sunvim Co., Ltd. recorded a net profit of 369 million - 418 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.02% - 70.27%.

Leading battery companies lock in capacity with long-term orders and dual equity binding to alleviate supply security anxiety

With VC supply remaining tight, downstream power battery giants are taking the initiative, using long-term supply agreements and strategic equity investments to lock in upstream capacity and pre-emptively avoid raw material shortage risks.

In terms of long-term order cooperation, CATL bypassed electrolyte companies directly and signed a dedicated supply agreement with Yongtai Technology. According to the agreement, in addition to supporting its own electrolyte production needs for VC, Yongtai Technology will supply CATL exclusively over three years. The supply volumes for 2027-2029 are 20,000 tons, 30,000 tons, and 40,000 tons respectively, totaling nearly 90,000 tons over three years. Industry analysts stated that battery factories directly locking in VC capacity is essentially a concern about insufficient medium-to-long-term raw material supply, aiming to achieve supply security and price stability.

Equity binding is landing simultaneously. In May this year, the new energy subsidiary of VC leader Huasheng Lithium Electricity completed a business registration change, with BYD completing a 15% equity investment, deeply binding upstream core raw material capacity.

Leading battery companies are intensively laying out upstream VC capacity, further strengthening market expectations for price increases, and confirming the core logic of medium-to-long-term supply-demand tightness in the industry.

Root cause of supply-demand imbalance: Energy storage drives surge in demand, effective industry capacity release restricted

This round of VC price increases is not short-term market speculation, but stems fundamentally from the supply-demand gap formed by the release of rigid downstream demand and the insufficient elasticity of upstream capacity supply.

VC is a key film-forming additive in electrolytes. It can form an SEI protective film on the negative electrode of lithium batteries, reducing electrode loss, and directly determining battery cycle life and safety performance. Both power battery and energy storage battery production cannot do without this raw material.

Two major drivers on the demand side continue to pull industry increments:

Overall lithium battery production scheduling continues to refresh historical highs. Data from Dadong Era Think Tank shows that in July 2026, domestic lithium battery production reached 283 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 5.6%; global production was 296 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 5.3%, setting a new high for five consecutive months.

The contribution from energy storage battery increments is prominent. Energy storage cells account for 42.9% of total domestic production. The VC addition ratio for energy storage batteries is far higher than that for power batteries: the addition ratio for power batteries is 1%-3%, while energy storage generally exceeds 3%. In the secondary injection stage of large-capacity energy storage cells, the addition ratio even breaks through 10%, significantly raising the overall VC demand base.

Conversely, looking at the supply side, industry supply struggles to quickly match surging demand. Previously, the industry experienced a deep reshuffle, and companies' attitudes toward expansion have tended to be cautious, with very little new capacity put into operation. Meanwhile, VC production processes are stringent; it polymerizes easily at high temperatures and crystallizes easily at low temperatures. Equipment operation requires a large amount of safety redundancy, and production line loads can generally only be maintained at around 80%, making it difficult to release capacity at full capacity. In terms of capacity data, by the end of 2026, the industry's nominal VC capacity is 192,000 tons, but after deducting maintenance and process limitations, effective supply is only 115,000 tons. Capacity utilization is severely restricted.

Short-term VC prices are easy to rise and hard to fall; the gap may continue to expand after the third quarter

Multiple institutions and industry insiders unanimously judge that the short-term tight supply-demand balance for VC is difficult to improve, prices have strong support, and there is still room for increases.

Short-term new capacity is concentrated at the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter before it can be gradually put into operation. Moreover, there is uncertainty in production line ramp-up, making it impossible to quickly fill the market gap. Calculations show that in July, global electrolyte production exceeded 300,000 tons, and the VC supply gap officially appeared; in November, electrolyte production rose to 360,000 tons, and monthly VC demand exceeded 11,000 tons, further widening the supply-demand gap. Research reports predict that with the arrival of the traditional peak season for lithium batteries, VC prices are expected to rise to the 180,000 - 200,000 yuan/ton range.

At this stage, many companies are accelerating the layout of new capacity:

· Huasheng Lithium Electricity's 60,000-ton VC project is being constructed in two phases, with the first phase of 30,000 tons under steady construction;

· Yongtai Technology is planning an 800 million yuan project in Inner Mongolia to build a new 50,000-ton VC supporting facility. However, VC is a high-risk fine chemical product. Project environmental and safety assessments are strictly approved, and the overall construction cycle is about 1.5 years. After production, it takes about another year to complete capacity ramp-up. New capacity cannot alleviate the current shortage situation in the short term.

Industry competition logic iteration: Farewell to scale competition, integration and high-purity processes become core barriers

From a long-term perspective, when future new capacity lands centrally and market supply becomes loose, the model of simply relying on expansion to seize the market will cease to exist. Industry competition will shift to a comparison of comprehensive strength, with three core barriers determining corporate competitiveness.

First, integrated raw material layout is the key to cost reduction. Leading companies are extending upstream to intermediates to build complete industrial chains: Fuxiang Shares has created a complete EC-CEC-VC circular industrial chain; Huasheng Lithium Electricity has equipped CEC intermediate production lines, using continuous flow reaction processes to compress production costs; Sunvim is simultaneously laying out intermediate supporting facilities to reduce dependence on external raw materials.

Second, high-purity product processes widen the quality gap. Downstream batteries continue to raise safety standards, making high-purity VC a necessity. The purity of mainstream industry products reaches 99.99%, while leader Huasheng Lithium Electricity can achieve 99.9999% ultra-high purity, adapting to high-end power batteries and energy storage products.

Third, stable supply and long-term customer binding form a moat. Binding leading battery customers such as CATL and BYD through long-term orders and equity cooperation can hedge against industry cycle fluctuations and occupy stable order advantages during supply-demand cycle switches. This is a core competitiveness that small and medium-sized manufacturers find difficult to replicate.