SunSirs: Domestic PVC Spot Prices Currently Fluctuating Within a Narrow Range at Low Levels

I. Domestic Spot and Regional Prices (July 6)

On July 6, the SunSirs benchmark price for PVC was 4,355.00 RMB/ton. Spot quotes across various regions generally saw a slight intraday rise as traders tentatively raised their offers, though actual trading volume remained driven by immediate, essential demand.

1. North China (Zibo, Shandong): Mainstream ex-warehouse prices for carbide-based Type 5 PVC were 4,440–4,470 RMB/ton (up 30–50 RMB/ton from the previous day); market supply was ample, and low-priced goods moved smoothly.

2. East China Market: Mainstream transaction prices for SG5 PVC were 4,460–4,490 RMB/ton; the basis spread was weak, with spot prices trading at a discount of 50–150 RMB/ton relative to forward contracts.

3. South China Market: Quotes rose by 50 RMB/ton; inflows from outside the region were limited, providing relatively stronger support for local spot prices.

4. Central and Northeast China saw increases of 20–30 RMB/ton, while Southwest China saw a slight rise of 10 RMB/ton.

Overall, most upstream ex-factory quotes remained stable, with only a small portion of supply seeing slight increases of 20–30 RMB/ton. Producers focused on actively securing orders and moving inventory; the market rebound was limited, and there was no concentrated restocking activity from downstream sectors.

II. Domestic Production and Operating Rates

Latest statistics show the overall capacity utilization rate of sampled PVC enterprises at 70.24%—a slight increase month-on-month but a significant decline year-on-year. Specifically, the operating rate for the carbide-based process was 75.65% (up 0.16% month-on-month), while the rate for the ethylene-based process was 57.48% (up 4.89% month-on-month), driven by the resumption of production at previously idled maintenance units, which increased overall supply. Industry losses due to maintenance totaled 103,900 tons this week, a decrease of 8,000 tons week-on-week; as the scale of unit maintenance narrowed, total industry output saw a slight week-on-week rise. Total PVC production for June was 1.8075 million tons, down 3.54% month-on-month; while periodic maintenance constrained June output, the resumption of production in July has led to a marginal easing of supply.

The industry generally relies on profits from co-produced caustic soda to offset PVC losses; consequently, even though production via the calcium carbide method remains unprofitable, overall operating rates remain rigid, making a significant short-term contraction in supply unlikely.

III. Port and Full-Chain Inventories

1. Port Social Inventory: Total social inventory at ports in East and South China stood at 500,600 tonnes, down 3.54% week-on-week but up a substantial 111.39% year-on-year. Absolute port inventory levels remain high compared to the same period in previous years. East China ports account for the vast majority of this inventory; the slight destocking observed is merely a short-term seasonal fluctuation, and inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated.

2. Producer Inventories: Stocks at production facilities totaled 303,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.24%, representing five days of sellable inventory. The pace of factory shipments has lagged behind the rate of production, causing inventory to continue accumulating at the production end.

High inventory levels across the entire supply chain act as a key bearish factor suppressing any rebound in spot prices; every minor price increase is met with sell-offs by traders and factories, consistently limiting the potential for upward movement. IV. Status of Domestic Downstream Demand

The comprehensive operating rate for downstream products ranged from 36.46% to 39.89%—figures lower than historical averages for the same period on both a year-on-year and month-on-month basis—highlighting the characteristics of the industry's traditional off-season:

1. Pipe production operating rates stood at 30%–31% (down 23% year-on-year); high outdoor temperatures and rainfall dampened infrastructure and home renovation construction, leading to persistently weak pipe orders;

2. Profile production operating rates were 35%–38% (only slightly higher than the same period in previous years), as demand transmission from the real estate completion sector remained sluggish;

3. Operating rates for films and soft products were relatively high, but their overall share of consumption was limited, failing to offset the decline in demand for rigid products.

Downstream processing plants maintained a "purchase-as-needed" strategy with no plans for advance stockpiling, while traders showed little willingness to build inventory. Spot market trading was lackluster, and the production-to-sales ratio declined; the overall pattern of weak domestic demand remained unchanged.

V. International Market Situation

1. Overseas Supply: International ethylene feedstock prices fluctuated at high levels, putting cost pressure on overseas ethylene-based production facilities; some overseas plants operated at low loads, tightening the circulation of spot supplies. However, overseas price quotes trended downward, causing the price spread between domestic and international markets to narrow;

2. Overseas Demand: Southeast Asia and South Asia entered the rainy season, slowing downstream construction and the pace of import procurement. India—a key export destination for Chinese PVC—extended its full tariff exemption policy to July 15, providing short-term support for purchases from China; however, with little more than ten days remaining in the policy window, expectations for long-term procurement remain cautious. Meanwhile, India's anti-subsidy investigation is progressing, posing a risk of trade barrier disruptions to exports in the medium to long term;

3. Global Supply and Demand: Global PVC supply remains generally ample; the combination of an overseas consumption off-season and the commissioning of new regional capacity makes it difficult for external markets to provide strong bullish support.

VI. PVC Customs Import/Export Data and Year-on-Year Comparison (April 2026)

(I) Import Data

Total imports of PVC resin powder in April amounted to 16,000 tons, down 12.2% month-on-month and 40.3% year-on-year; cumulative imports from January to April totaled 57,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 33.5%. Domestic supply is ample, and spot prices are lower than international market rates; the import arbitrage window remains closed, keeping import volumes consistently low and minimizing the impact of imported goods on the domestic market.

(II) Export Data

In April, exports of PVC resin powder totaled 284,700 tons, a sharp month-on-month decline of 58.37% and a year-on-year drop of 20.96%. Cumulative exports from January to April reached 1.7016 million tons, up 27.31% year-on-year.

The underlying logic for this data divergence is as follows: in the first quarter, a rush to export occurred ahead of the April 1st cancellation of export tax rebates, driving export volumes to a peak between January and March. In April, the loss of the tax rebate incentive—combined with the overseas off-season and low-priced competition from foreign supplies—caused monthly exports to weaken both year-on-year and month-on-month. Key export destinations included India, Vietnam, and Indonesia; India accounted for 15.5% of total monthly exports, making it the largest overseas market.

VII. Price Analysis of PVC Downstream Products

Ex-factory quotes for pipes and profiles have weakened in tandem, squeezing profit margins for finished products and prompting processors to actively limit raw material procurement. Prices for auxiliary agents—such as stabilizers and plasticizers—remain stable with no significant fluctuations; however, downstream finished products lack the pricing power to pass on costs, which in turn exerts downward pressure on PVC procurement prices.

Outlook for PVC Market Trends

Supported by a floor price set by calcium carbide costs and a temporary diversion of exports resulting from the postponement of Indian tariffs, PVC spot prices are fluctuating within a narrow, low range. There is limited room for a rebound, with prices expected to trade between 4,300 and 4,500 RMB/ton. High inventory levels at ports and factories, combined with weak "must-have" demand during the domestic downstream off-season, act as primary downward pressures; any rebound is likely to face selling pressure and subsequent retracement.

The industry remains characterized by overcapacity, and demand recovery along the downstream real estate chain is sluggish. Overall, the PVC market will maintain a state of weak equilibrium throughout the year, characterized primarily by fluctuating bottom-building. Brief, spike-like rebounds may occur due to periodic maintenance shutdowns or export windows, but a sustained upward trend is unlikely to materialize.

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