Breaking! US ends Iran oil export sanctions waivers; oil prices surge straight up.

Based on multiple reports from CCTV News, the U.S. Treasury Department officially announced on Tuesday that it is revoking sanctions relief related to Iranian oil exports. The market immediately expressed strong concerns regarding the subsequent direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations, causing international crude oil prices to surge significantly in response. Following the news, intraday gains for both WTI and Brent crude oil exceeded 5%.

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a document clarifying that oil transaction sanctions waivers issued on June 21, 2026, will officially become effective on July 7. This waiver was established based on a memorandum of understanding previously reached between the U.S. and Iran, with an original validity period of two months and room for negotiated extension. The document added that approved existing transactions may only be finalized, with a deadline of July 17, 2026, for such operations, and all new transactions related to Iranian crude oil after July 7 will no longer receive U.S. authorization.

The core contradiction of this round of maneuvering focuses on the control of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, the U.S. and Iran reached a relevant agreement where Iran pledged to guarantee the safety of commercial ship passage through the Strait but insisted that all vessels must sail through the channel near the Iranian coastline in the northern part of the Strait; the U.S. Navy, meanwhile, opened a southern shipping route along the coast of Oman, and most of the merchant ships recently attacked chose this southern route.

On Tuesday local time, shipping hazards in the Strait of Hormuz erupted intensively, with a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier, a very large crude carrier (VLCC), and another ordinary merchant ship being attacked in succession. the Combined Maritime Forces, led by the U.S. and headquartered in Bahrain, directly raised the navigation risk level in the Strait to critical.

The sudden shift in U.S. policy comes at a critical juncture: Previously, crude oil production and exports in the Persian Gulf were gradually recovering to pre-conflict levels, and international oil prices had also fallen back to the range seen before the conflict erupted. Once this revocation of waivers triggers the complete invalidation of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the global crude oil market may once again face severe turbulence.

Brett Erickson, Executive Partner at risk consultancy firm Obsidian Risk Advisors, commented on this, stating that the U.S. decision this time lacks rationality. The oil waiver only brings limited economic benefits to Iran, while canceling the permit could easily destroy the entire agreement between both sides; this move is not an effective means of pressure and constitutes a serious strategic mistake.