Accelerated phased resumption of production! Freeport Indonesia to significantly expand copper and gold production capacity by 2028

On July 14, PT Freeport Indonesia disclosed the latest resumption progress and medium-to-long-term capacity planning for the Grasberg mining area. With the continuous recovery of underground block caving production capacity, the company has set clear volume targets: gold production to increase to 1.4 million ounces (approximately 43 tons) and annual copper production to rise to 1.6 billion pounds by 2028, fully refreshing post-accident capacity expectations and gradually reshaping the global copper and gold supply landscape.

At a hearing in the Indonesian Congress, PT Freeport Indonesia President Tony Wenas detailed the phased mining ramp-up schedule. Data shows that the mine's daily ore processing volume will climb year by year, planning to process 170,000 tons daily in 2027, increasing to 208,000 tons in 2028, and further expanding to 226,000 tons in 2029, with continuous capacity release and steadily rising production.

Collapse accident drags down capacity, recovery rhythm implemented in phases

As a global core copper-gold mining base, the Grasberg mining area in Central Papua, Indonesia, experienced a sudden collapse accident in September 2025. Underground facilities were damaged and production chains were interrupted, directly causing a significant landslide in capacity and creating phased disruptions to the global supply of copper and gold raw materials.

After nearly a year of restoration and rectification, current mining area capacity has recovered to 50% of normal levels. According to the company's recovery plan, capacity utilization will rise to 65% in the second half of 2026; it will steadily climb to 75% in the first half of 2027, and achieve full-load operation in the second half of 2027, completely shaking off the production constraints caused by the accident.

2026 production under pressure, full-year output remains low

Affected by the aftermath of last year's collapse accident, the mine's overall capacity is still in a restoration phase this year, and the full-year mining intensity is lower than in previous years. The company estimates that the daily ore processing volume in 2026 will be approximately 124,000 tons, a significant decline from the daily processing volume of 139,000 tons in 2025.

The annual guidance has been simultaneously lowered at the production end. It is estimated that the full-year copper production in 2026 will be approximately 800 million pounds and gold production approximately 700,000 ounces (approximately 21 tons). The trend of short-term supply contraction is clear, and global copper and gold raw material supply remains tight within the year.

Medium-to-long-term capacity release reshapes overseas mining supply landscape

With the comprehensive completion of underground equipment commissioning, safety rectification, and system repairs, the Grasberg mining area will enter a new cycle of capacity expansion. After achieving full production in 2027 and continuous volume expansion in 2028—2029, the scale of copper and gold output in the mining area will rebound significantly, effectively filling the supply gap caused by the accident in the past two years.

Industry analysis points out that Grasberg is the core production area of a world-class copper-gold mine, and its recovery rhythm directly affects international copper prices, gold prices, and domestic smelting and processing raw material supply. Short-term weak supply within the year supports prices, while the concentrated capacity release after 2027 will gradually alleviate the tight pattern of global mining raw materials.