OPEC+ group decides to continue increasing crude oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in September

On August 2, local time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released an official statement stating that seven core OPEC+ oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held an online special meeting to comprehensively review the current global crude oil supply and demand fundamentals, geopolitical disturbance factors, and future market trends, ultimately finalizing a daily increase of 188,000 barrels of crude oil in September 2026 to use market-based means to suppress oil price volatility and stabilize the broader oil market.

This small production increase is not a release of new supply, but serves the winding-down work of compensatory production cuts, helping relevant oil-producing countries orderly fulfill the make-up plans for previous production cut quotas and gradually complete the exit from voluntary production cuts.

The seven countries reiterated in the statement that all parties will strictly abide by the OPEC+ cooperation declaration and national voluntary additional production cut agreements, maintaining a high degree of synergy in production policies; to achieve dynamic and flexible control, oil-producing countries determined to maintain the mechanism of monthly market assessment meetings, with the next regular market analysis meeting scheduled for September 6, facilitating adjustments to production strategies at any time based on global supply and demand and geopolitical changes.

Review of Core Crude Oil Market Data in Recent Months

I. Price Trends: Geopolitical conflicts dominate wide-range fluctuations; oil prices rose and fell sharply in the first half of the year. International oil prices in the first half of 2026 overall presented the characteristics of intense volatility of "surging and then retreating, rebounding again in July," with geopolitical gaming in the Middle East being the biggest disturbing factor for prices.

2—May: US-Iran friction escalated, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was obstructed, global crude oil circulation was restricted, the market supply gap continued to widen, and Brent crude oil maintained high-range fluctuations, approaching $100/barrel multiple times; affected by the shipping blockade, global crude oil inventories continued to deplete, with global oil inventories consuming 5.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and supply tightness supporting oil price resilience.

June: The US and Iran briefly reached a memorandum of understanding, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, market supply expectations improved significantly, and oil prices dove rapidly. Brent crude oil moved downward all the way, falling to the $68-70/barrel range at the beginning of July, hitting an intra-year阶段性 low; Brent oil prices fell significantly month-on-month in that month with a notable single-month decline, and market trading logic switched from "geopolitical supply shortage" to "supply recovery, weak demand."

July: The US reinstated sanctions on Iran, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz returned,叠加 unstable transport on the Red Sea route, oil prices surged again, with Brent crude oil touching $102/barrel at its highest; accompanied by a phased cooling of the conflict, oil prices peaked and retreated, and at the end of the month, the US crude oil main contract closing price stabilized at $86.8/barrel, with the whole month witnessing multiple roller-coaster market movements of significant rises and falls.

II. Supply Side: OPEC+ Gradually Exits Production Cuts, Geopolitics Limits Actual Production Increase Space

OPEC+ initiated the normalized exit of compensatory production cuts starting in April 2026, adopting a gentle rhythm of slightly raising quotas monthly. June, July, and August all executed a quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day, and this September continues the same production increase scale, belonging to a coherent quota repair action.

2—April: Dragged down by the US-Iran conflict, exports of Gulf oil-producing countries were obstructed, and OPEC+ actual production was significantly lower than quotas. In April, OPEC total production decreased by nearly 10 million barrels/day compared to February, and a large-scale supply gap appeared in global crude oil, with the supply-demand gap in April reaching the first-half peak of 12.2 million barrels/day.

5—June: Strait shipping warmed up, production resumption in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other countries accelerated, and OPEC+ total production in June increased significantly by 3 million barrels/day month-on-month to 36.28 million barrels/day; Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in June fell by 99,000 barrels/day month-on-month to 6.847 million barrels/day, while Iran's production rose by 155,000 barrels/day month-on-month to 2.441 million barrels/day, showing a significant divergence in regional production structure.

Overall Characteristics: In the first half of the year, OPEC+ focused on "steadily raising quotas," but geopolitical maritime issues long constrained the real shipment volume, and there was a deviation between book production increases and actual circulable crude oil, which is also the core reason why the alliance insists on small-step production increases and monthly reviews.

III. Demand and Inventory: Global Demand Slowly Recovers, Inventories First Drop Then Diverge

On the demand side, global crude oil demand in 2026 grew mildly overall. In the first half of the year, constrained by divergent economic recovery and high oil prices, the pace of consumption recovery was relatively slow. Global crude oil demand was under pressure in the second quarter; after entering June, Asian refining starts warmed up, and refinery throughput increased by 1.5 million barrels/day month-on-month, but it was still lower than the level in the same period last year; domestically, China's crude oil imports in June were 29.27 million tons, a year-on-year sharp decline of 41.3%, hitting a recent low and dragging down global procurement demand.

The inventory dimension presented structural divergence: OECD onshore crude oil inventories moved lower for consecutive months, cumulatively decreasing by over 135 million barrels in May and June; however, floating crude oil at sea increased significantly, with global offshore crude oil inventories rising by 117 million barrels month-on-month in June, and a large amount of crude oil was stuck in transit, while onshore spot inventories remained relatively tight, supporting the resilience of oil price bottoms.

Market Interpretation

This round of OPEC+ continues to adopt the small-step gradual production increase mode, which not only complies with the appeal of oil-producing countries to make up for reduced production capacity but also avoids a deep fall in oil prices caused by a one-time large release of goods. The current crude oil market remains highly tied to the Middle East geopolitical situation, and the smoothness of maritime transport and the direction of US-Iran gaming are still core variables determining short-term oil prices.

OPEC+ maintains a monthly flexible adjustment mechanism, which can quickly tighten production when supply tightens and orderly release capacity when there is supply excess, maximizing the consideration of oil-producing countries' revenue and global energy supply chain stability. The subsequent September meeting will further calibrate production policies combining the summer oil consumption peak season, shipping situation, and global consumption data.