SunSirs: Cyclohexane Market Demand Was Insufficient, and Overall Market Shipments Were Sluggish

Price trend

According to data monitored by SunSirs, the average domestic price of premium-grade industrial cyclohexane stood at 6,166 RMB/ton as of July 31. This week, the market halted the continuous downward trend seen throughout July, shifting instead to a period of weak stability and sideways movement at low price levels. The SunSirs benchmark price remained flat at 6,166.67 RMB/ton on July 31—unchanged from July 27—marking a 13.95% decline from the 7,166.67 RMB/ton recorded at the start of the month; current prices sit at the low end of the ranges observed over the past one, two, and three years.

Market Analysis

Regarding market conditions and regional pricing: In Shandong, mainstream ex-factory prices range from 5,956 to 6,600 RMB/ton (premium by-products from Luxi/Hualu Hengsheng are at 6,600 RMB/ton; traders' bulk orders meeting national standards are around 6,200 RMB/ton; low-priced supplies are at 5,400–6,000 RMB/ton); Shenmu Fuyou is priced at 5,956 RMB/ton; and prices in the high-end East China region, hovering around 7,800 RMB/ton, continue to undergo downward corrections. Trading characteristics: Large orders are scarce, with activity dominated by small orders driven by immediate needs and drummed retail sales. Inventory levels at both trader and producer warehouses are above average; price concessions to facilitate sales are widespread, and high-end quotes lack actual market takers. Related products: Cyclohexanone rose slightly to 8,800–8,900 RMB/ton; caprolactam remained flat at 12,147 RMB/ton; and adipic acid dipped slightly to 8,233 RMB/ton. Cyclohexane represents the weakest link in this value chain.

Regarding costs: Spot prices for pure benzene stand at 6,055 RMB/ton in East China (up 20 yuan week-on-week), 6,030 RMB/ton in North China, and 6,050 RMB/ton in South China; hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu is priced at 6,275 RMB/ton. The capacity utilization rate for pure benzene is 78.14%, with a weekly output of 435,700 tonnes; port inventories in East China are 163,000 tonnes (down 4.12% week-on-week). Overall supply is ample, and the market lacks upward momentum. Regarding crude oil transmission: Brent DTD is fluctuating weakly around $69.59/barrel, and naphtha prices have seen minor adjustments to $581.5/tonne, with no significant unilateral surges or plunges; costs for the hydrogenation process remain rigid but face no upward pressure.

Downstream demand: Regarding primary demand (caprolactam, adipic acid, and cyclohexanone), the capacity utilization rate for caprolactam stands at 95.72% (a high level, though orders for downstream polyamide 6 chips remain lackluster); the operating rate for adipic acid is relatively low at 64.32%; and cyclohexanone plants are operating at 70–75% capacity. With the textile and polyamide product sectors in their traditional off-season, downstream players are maintaining only baseline inventory levels without increasing procurement. Regarding solvents and intermediates, operating rates for coatings, pharmaceutical intermediates, and general-purpose solvents remain low due to the combined impact of environmental regulations and the summer off-season, leading some buyers to switch to substitutes or delay purchases.

On the supply side, domestic cyclohexane plant operating rates stand at 62–66%; facilities at Luxi, Hualu Hengsheng, and Haili have resumed operations following maintenance. Although Shanxi Lanhua’s 20,000-tonne by-product unit has shut down, the overall supply landscape remains unchanged, and integrated plants continue to supply significant volumes of merchant product.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that for the period from late August through September, attention should be focused on three key signals: "Golden September" stock-up activity in the caprolactam/polyamide sector, a reduction in port inventories of pure benzene to below 120,000 tonnes, and seasonal strengthening in crude oil prices. If any two of these materialize, cyclohexane prices are likely to recover to the 6,500–6,900 RMB/ton range, though a return to the level of over 7,000 RMB/ton seen in early July remains unlikely.

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