SunSirs: US Crude Oil and Refined Product Inventories Expected to Fall

On Monday, August 3, a preliminary survey indicated that US inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillates were expected to decline last week. Four surveyed analysts estimated, on average, a drop of approximately 2 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending July 31. Gasoline inventories were projected to fall by about 1.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories—comprising diesel and heating oil—were expected to decrease by 100,000 barrels.

The anticipated 2-million-barrel drop in US crude inventories for the week ending July 31, alongside simultaneous declines in gasoline and distillate stocks, reflects robust crude demand, providing bullish support for both spot and futures crude prices.

Crude oil is the primary feedstock for petroleum asphalt; as crude prices strengthen on expectations of inventory declines, the cost of producing asphalt rises, offering a modest boost to its price. On August 3, 2026, the closing price for the main petroleum asphalt contract (2706) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 3,564 RMB/tonne—down 15 RMB/tonne from the previous trading day—though the impact of cost-side support is expected to become increasingly apparent.

The upstream sector for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is closely linked to the crude oil value chain; rising oil prices increase LPG production costs, providing a slight lift to its price. On August 3, 2026, the closing price for the main LPG contract (2610) on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 5,338 RMB/tonne—down 15 RMB/tonne from the previous trading day—with cost-side support likely to strengthen gradually.

Crude oil is the main feedstock for paraxylene (PX); upward movement in oil prices drives up PX production costs, offering a modest boost to its price. On August 3, 2026, the closing price for the main PX contract (2609) on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,148 RMB/tonne—up 38 RMB/tonne from the previous trading day—showing a firm price trend supported by costs.

Butadiene rubber is a downstream chemical product of crude oil; rising oil prices increase its production costs, providing a slight boost to its price. On August 3, 2026, the closing price of the dominant butadiene rubber contract (2609) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 12,570 RMB/tonne, up 30 RMB/tonne from the previous trading day, reflecting strong cost support.

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