SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Trended Downward Overall in July

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, the price of caustic soda trended downward overall this month. The average market price was 667 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 643 RMB/ton at the end, representing a 3.6% decline for the month and a 25.32% drop year-on-year.

On July 30, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index stood at 725 points, down 2 points from the previous day; this represents a 65.93% decrease from the period high of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and a 2.55% increase from the period low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The period covers December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices trended downward overall this month. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda hovered around 620-670 RMB/ton. Prices in the Zhejiang region remained stable, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan at approximately 830-860 RMB/ton. Prices in Inner Mongolia consolidated, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda at around 1,630-1,800 RMB/ton (on a 100% concentration basis). Throughout July, liquid caustic soda markets across the country saw more declines than gains. Although supply was expected to contract due to plant maintenance in East China, the traditional off-season for downstream sectors limited any significant growth in demand. Alumina prices remained weak, and most buyers adopted a wait-and-see attitude; while some aluminum plants replenished stocks moderately based on their inventory levels, alumina producers showed little interest in spot trading and remained cautious with their quotes. Demand from non-aluminum downstream sectors remained sluggish, with purchasing limited to immediate needs; the lack of positive drivers kept the market under pressure.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that caustic soda prices are currently trending weakly; downstream alumina procurement remains lackluster, the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments is intensifying, and a wait-and-see attitude prevails in the market. While maintenance at some non-aluminum downstream facilities concluded in August, the projected increase in volume is limited. Given the interplay between supply and demand, caustic soda prices are expected to consolidate, with the specific trajectory depending on downstream market demand.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.