SunSirs: Melamine Shows Strengthening Short-Term Signals, but the Long-Term Rrend Remains Weak

Price trend: Rebounding after halting the decline

According to data from SunSirs, the benchmark price for melamine was 6,175.00 RMB/ton on September 1, marking a 0.41% increase from the 6,150.00 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the period (early August). Regarding recent trends, the market experienced a period of consolidation between August 25 and 28—with prices holding steady in the 6,150.00–6,162.50 RMB/ton range—before surging significantly on August 31, posting a single-day gain of 0.20%.

Cost side

Urea prices have fallen: on September 1, the benchmark price for urea stood at 1,715.00 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.42%. As a key upstream raw material for melamine, the decline in urea prices theoretically weakens the cost-side support for melamine production costs.

Against the backdrop of falling raw material costs and a slight rise in finished product prices, profit margins for manufacturers have seen some recovery. While this may encourage the maintenance of operating rates, it also implies a lack of cost-driven upward momentum for melamine prices; the current price increases stem primarily from downstream restocking demand or manufacturers' determination to hold firm on prices.

Market Outlook:

Downstream users are advised to adopt a "purchase-as-needed" strategy rather than stockpiling large inventories; upstream manufacturers may take advantage of short-term rebounds to sell off stock and lock in profits.

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