SunSirs: The Domestic Bisphenol A Market Declined in August

Price trends

In August, the domestic Bisphenol A market saw an initial rise followed by a decline, trending downward overall. At the beginning of the month, spot market negotiations in East China hovered around 9,700-9,750 RMB/ton; prices weakened rapidly mid-month and subsequently fluctuated at low levels during the latter half. By month-end, mainstream transactions settled at 9,200-9,350 RMB/ton, marking a total monthly drop of approximately 300-400 RMB/ton. With high-priced transactions lacking momentum, the market shifted from a stance of price support to a tug-of-war over moving inventory.

Off-peak demand season with insufficient downstream absorption (the primary pressure)

1) Epoxy resin: July and August mark the traditional off-season for coatings and flooring; operating rates stand at only 40-45% for solid epoxy and 60-65% for liquid epoxy. With weak downstream demand from the coatings, infrastructure, and real estate sectors, resin manufacturers are operating at a loss, limiting procurement to essential restocking and refusing to purchase at high prices. 2) Polycarbonate (PC): Plant operating rates remain decent, but end-market consumption for home appliances and sheets is sluggish. PC profit margins are squeezed, leading buyers to maintain low inventory levels without actively stockpiling. 3) Overall procurement strategy has shifted to "buy-as-needed"; middlemen are reluctant to build inventory, circulation of high-priced stock is hindered, and holders are offering price concessions to move goods.

Upward pressure on the supply side was mounting slightly, while support from maintenance activities remained limited.

The supply contraction resulting from the concentrated load reductions and maintenance shutdowns in July gradually eased in August; as some phenol-ketone and bisphenol-A units restarted operations, the industry's operating rate recovered slightly from its lows to the 65-70% range.

Although short-term maintenance scheduled for August at specific facilities (such as Fuyu Petrochemical) provided a temporary boost, the resulting reduction in output was insufficient to offset other factors or reverse the market's overall weakness during the off-season; meanwhile, a steady influx of imports into East China ports continued to increase the available supply.

Cost support weakened; losses propagate through the industry chain.

After a brief spike in early the month, upstream phenol prices began to retreat by mid-month; meanwhile, benzene and acetone lacked sustained upward momentum, weakening cost-side support for bisphenol A (BPA). With processing margins for BPA remaining inverted for an extended period, the industry has stayed in a loss-making state; consequently, any weakening in upstream raw material prices deprives BPA of the basis to maintain price levels. At the same time, a negative feedback loop has emerged: rising costs fail to trigger corresponding price hikes downstream, ultimately forcing a correction in raw material prices.

Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics.

At the beginning of the month, short-term bullish sentiment emerged due to expectations of production cuts for maintenance; however, trading volume shrank rapidly following the price surge. Traders shifted from withholding stock to offloading it, and with a lack of buying interest at high levels, prices came under downward pressure.

Key market dynamics in August included a periodic recovery in supply, the traditional off-season for demand, wavering cost support, and a breakdown in the transmission of downstream profit margins. While manufacturers faced losses and were inclined to hold firm on prices, a lack of orders from end-users resulted in a weak, oscillating market pattern characterized by an inability to sustain gains and a tendency to fall without rebounding.

Market Outlook

1) The extent to which the traditional peak season materializes for the downstream coatings and electronics industries in September; 2) Fluctuations in phenol-acetone feedstock prices and domestic plant maintenance/restart schedules; 3) Port arrival volumes and the pace of inventory accumulation; 4) Changes in operating rates at epoxy resin and polycarbonate (PC) plants.

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