US Soybeans Rebounded, Chinese Soybeans Followed a Slight Rebound

https://www.chemnet.com   Jun 23,2021 Ruida Futures

　　External disk trend: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures rose on Friday, while soybean meal rose. CBOT July soybean futures rose 60.3 cents to 1313 cents per bushel, July soybean meal contract rose 11.9 US dollars to 373.4 US dollars per short ton; July soybean oil contract rose -0.6 cents to 56.01 cents per pound.

　　Disk trend:①A2109 closed at 5654, 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 164,231 lots and open interest of 118,662 lots, -4359, A9-January spread -56;②B2108 closed at 4017, 2.06% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 50038 hands, open interest was 29481 hands, -3562;③M2109 closed at 3394, 0.35% from the previous trading day, volume was 961505 hands, open interest was 1161999 hands, -3340 hands, the basis difference between Jiangsu spot and M2201 was -49, and M2109 basis is -44, M9-January spread is -5;④Y2109 contract closed at 7920, 1.15% from the previous trading day, the trading volume was 1,155,655 hands, the open interest was 456,363, and the Y9-January spread was 164.

　　News: 1. According to data from the online query platform of the General Administration of Customs, China’s soybean imports in May 2021 were 9,607,300 tons, an increase of 29% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. That month, the import of soybeans from Brazil was 9,234,900 tons, an increase of 82% month-on-month and an increase of 4.2% year-on-year. In the same period, imports of soybeans from the United States were 244,400 tons, a decrease of 89% from the previous month and a half year-on-year. 2. In terms of soybean meal exports, China's soybean meal exports in May amounted to 112,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Japan is still the largest export destination, and it exported 100,000 tons of soybean meal to Japan that month, an increase of 51% year-on-year.

　　Market price: domestic soybean price is 5460. The price of soybean meal from oil plants in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu: 3350,50. Dealers in Tianjin area offer 8810 first-class soybean oil. Zhangjiagang dealers quoted 8770. Traders in Guangzhou quoted 8820. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

　　Warehouse receipt inventory: Bean One Warehouse Receipt 19,423 lots, -100 lots; Bean Second Warehouse Receipt 900 lots, -200 lots. Soybean meal warehouse receipts were 23,697 lots, 0 soybean oil warehouse receipts were 6,100 lots, and 200 lots.

　　Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Douyi 2109 contract are 79693, -1733, short position 74604, -2968, and the net position is 5089; the top 20 long positions of Douyi 2108 contract are 22605, -1183, short position 22035, -1841, and the net position is 570. Soybean meal 2109 top 20 long positions 740483, -9080, short positions 836054, -6927, net positions -95571. The top 20 soybean oil 2109 contracts are long 300702, 3228, short 345862, 1728, and net position -45160. (Unit: hand)

　　Opinion summary: Bean 1: Entering the wheat harvest season, farmers surrender their stocks and their demand for soybeans weakens. In addition, with the approaching summer vacation and the graduation of fresh graduates, consumer demand in the school canteen is sluggish. Coupled with the low price of vegetables, the high price difference between soy products and vegetables also limits the demand for soybeans. At the same time, the price of pork is low, and the ratio and substitution effect of animal protein to vegetable protein is gradually emerging. The overall sluggish downstream demand has dragged down the price of domestic beans. At present, the main factor supporting the price of domestic soybeans is the National Reserve. The soybean purchase price announced last week has also remained at 2.875 yuan/kg, without further reduction. In addition, after recent purchases and storage, and some protein factories entered the market for purchase, soybeans in the Guannei area are quickly digested, and surplus grains in southern regions are limited. In the case of limited supply, the market decline will be limited to a certain extent, and the phenomenon of high quality and better price will be more obvious. From the disk perspective, the bean has lightened its position and went up, and the short position may show some signs of liquidation. The momentum of the continued decline is weakened, and the main thing is to wait and see for the time being.

　　Bean 2: The weekly crop growth report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday showed that as of the week of June 13, 2021, the excellent growth rate of soybeans in the United States was 62%, and the market estimate was 65%, compared with 72% in the same period last year. That week, the US soybean planting rate was 94%, and the market expected it to be 95%. The previous week was 90%, last year was 92%, and the five-year average was 88%. That week, the U.S. soybean seedling rate was 86%, the previous week was 76%, the same period last year was 79%, and the five-year average was 74%. Although the good rate of U.S. soybeans is slightly poor, the overall planting rate and seedling emergence rate are higher than the five-year average, which limits the trend of U.S. soybeans. In Argentina, the weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that the progress of the Argentine soybean harvest in the past week has advanced by 0.5%. As of the week of June 16, Argentina's soybean harvest in 2020/21 reached 99.4%, which was higher than the 98.9% a week ago. The harvested soybean yield is 43.3 million tons, with an average yield of 2.67 tons per hectare. On the disk, the US soybeans rebounded, and imported beans followed the rebound. Waiting for the return of the moving average, the part of the early short orders took profit and left the market.

　　Soybean meal: For U.S. soybeans, after the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures plummeted, Chinese buyers quickly sold on Friday to buy soybeans shipped from the Pacific Northwest port in the United States. The shipping schedule is October/November, about 480,000. Tons of beautiful beans. Meteorological models show that this week, the main soybean producing areas in the United States have increased rainfall. Most of the production areas are covered by rain and the amount of rainfall is relatively large. The increase in rainfall is conducive to soybean growth; however, the rainfall in North and South Dakota is still low, and the dry weather will continue to affect the growth of local soybeans. . Pay close attention to the weather and soybean growth in American producing areas. From the perspective of soybean meal fundamentals, the domestic soybean crush continued to decline slightly last week, and the output of soybean meal has decreased, but the feed farming companies have been slow to pick up the goods, and soybean meal stocks have continued to rise. On June 15, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil plants was 960,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons over the same period last week, an increase of 230,000 tons over the same period last month, an increase of 180,000 tons over the same period last year, and an increase of 8 over the average of the same period in the past three years. Million tons. Soybean arrivals and crushing quantities will remain high in the past two months, and soybean meal stocks are expected to exceed 1 million tons. On the disk, soybean meal is testing the low point support in mid-March, and it is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short-term. The remaining short orders in the early period are held cautiously.

　　Soybean oil: For US soybeans, after the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures plummeted, Chinese buyers quickly sold on Friday to buy soybeans shipped from the Pacific Northwest port in the United States. The shipping schedule is October/November, about 480,000. Tons of beautiful beans. Meteorological models show that this week, the main soybean producing areas in the United States have increased rainfall. Most of the production areas are covered by rain and the amount of rainfall is relatively large. The increase in rainfall is conducive to soybean growth; however, the rainfall in North and South Dakota is still low, and the dry weather will continue to affect the growth of local soybeans. . Pay close attention to the weather and soybean growth in American producing areas. From the perspective of oil and fat fundamentals, with the arrival of a large number of Brazilian beans in Hong Kong, the operating rate of oil plants has remained high, and the stock of soybean oil has continued to rise. Last week, although the domestic soybean crush continued to fall, it was still at a relatively high level. The output of soybean oil was relatively large. In addition, the speed of delivery by downstream companies was slow, and soybean oil stocks continued to rise. Monitoring shows that on June 15, the soybean oil inventory of major oil plants nationwide was 790,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, an increase of 70,000 tons on a month-on-month basis, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the same period last year, and a decrease of 480,000 tons from the average of the same period in the past three years. The quantity of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in the past two months is still huge, and soybean crushing will remain high. Soybean oil stocks are expected to continue to rise in the later period. Palm oil spot import profits are improving. Traders purchase eight palm oil vessels with August-September shipping schedules. In the later period, domestic oil supply will become more relaxed. All the 5941 tons of vegetable oil sold by China Grain Oils and Fats Co., Ltd. on June 18 were sold out. The policy control measures to ensure supply and stable prices also put pressure on the oil market. On the disk, soybean oil tested the low point at the end of March and rebounded slightly, waiting for the return of the moving average, and the remaining short orders in the previous period will continue to be held.

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