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Turkey thermal coal prices under pressure from low power demand

https://www.chemnet.com   Apr 14,2017 Platts



Spot prices of thermal coal delivered into the Turkish market lost some ground this week, sliding in tandem with movements in the European market as values continued to seesaw on limited trade indications.

S&P Global Platts assessed the weekly CIF Turkey 6,000 kcal/kg NAR 90-day price at $82/mt Friday, losing $1 on the week.

Several sources said there was no fresh demand from Turkish buyers, as many were awaiting the outcome of Sunday's constitutional referendum that could have huge implications for the value of the Lira.

"I don't expect to see much demand from Turkey ahead of the referendum now... of course the result could totally change the picture, but there's no logic to evaluate the near future in Turkey before the result," one Switzerland-based trader said.


Following last weeks' spike, offers had begun to trace back to the low $80s/mt, with Russian sellers seen among the most aggressive, but several sources said this had not prompted any demand.

"The market is not at all short at the moment," a second Switzerland-based trader said. "Demand has been largely unchanged for the last 3-4 weeks... Cyclone Debbie [which hit Queensland, Australia, around two weeks ago] gave a sudden boost to prices, but with no fundamentals, such pricing cannot be sustained."

This was echoed by a Turkey-based trader who said that aside from small, but not firm inquiries, the market was more or less silent.

"We see some occasional interest from limestone factories but they will likely take small cargoes from Russia Black Sea at low prices, so there's no space for traders there... most are operating hand to mouth as much as they can because the Lira makes imports expensive and prices are expected to drop further."

The source added that low demand had been exacerbated by the fact that numerous coal-fired electricity facilities had already been taken offline as power prices in the country were low, while generators were preparing for peak demand season over the holidays.

"March and April is a fairly standard shutdown season for Turkish power plants as it is low demand season for power, but Ramadan falls early this year, so a few facilities have gone offline for maintenance ahead of schedule...they will make good margins late June through to early September, so they will be preparing to run at maximum rates," the source said.

As a result, one or two buyers were heard to be in discussion to delay or even defer purchases of term Colombian cargoes.
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