SunSirs: Insufficient Cost Drive, Polyester Filament Prices Fell Slightly (September 19-23)

https://www.chemnet.com   Sep 28,2022 SunSirs

　　According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic polyester filament market price fell slightly this week (September 19-23), of which the weekly decline of polyester POY was 0.83%, and the declines of polyester FDY and polyester DTY were 0.57% and 0.33% respectively. In the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the price of polyester POY (150D/48F) was 8,000-8,500 RMB/ton, the price of polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) was 9,350-9,700 RMB/ton, and the price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) was 8,600-8,800 RMB/ton.

　　Analysis review

　　Crude oil in the raw material market fluctuated and fell. As of September 23, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was 78.74 US dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was 85.03 US dollars/barrel. The price of PX fell with crude oil, while the domestic PX operating rate increased slightly, and the cost support became weaker. In terms of PTA, the supply side rebounded slightly, but there were still many equipment maintenance, load reduction, and delayed restarts. The market spot was tight, and the destocking pattern still supported the PTA price. The average spot market price in East China was 6,590 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 0.16%.

　　The downstream was in the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", and the start-up load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly to more than 71%. However, the overall quality of "Golden September" was insufficient, and most companies took a wait-and-see attitude and maintained just-needed procurement. In terms of exports, multiple factors such as shrinking international market demand and falling prices of chemical fiber and cotton textile raw materials dragged down the growth rate of terminal textile and apparel exports in August. According to statistics, in August, China's textile and apparel exports were 208.99 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, and a month-on-month decrease of 6.8%. Among them, textile exports were 84.27 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1%, and a month-on-month decrease of 8%. Clothing exports were 124.72 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%.

　　Market outlook

　　Analysts of SunSirs believe that on the cost side, the tight spot in circulation still supports the price of PTA, but the weakening of crude oil leads to insufficient cost driving. At the same time, the consumption performance of textile clothing is sluggish, and textile enterprises have clearly felt the "cold". As the National Day holiday is approaching, downstream weaving is facing a reduction in the burden, and polyester filament factories will need to further promote and destock. On the whole, the price of polyester filament will show a downward trend.

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