SunSirs: The Current Round of Retail Price Adjustment of Refined Oil Products will Run Aground

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 10,2022 SunSirs

The price adjustment window of this round of domestic oil products was opened at 24:00 on October 10. The retail price of this round of domestic oil products will be stranded. Since 2022, the price of oil products has been adjusted eighteen times, with eleven increases and seven decreases. The change rate of this round of crude oil has started negatively. However, during the National Day holiday, the crude oil has risen by 15%, and the price adjustment of this round is less than 40 RMB/ ton, so no adjustment will be made.

Entering this round of pricing cycle, the change rate of international crude oil has started in a negative direction, but during the National Day, the crude oil was "five consecutive positive". The OPEC+ Oil Production Alliance announced at the joint ministerial meeting in Vienna on Wednesday that it would reduce the daily output of crude oil by 2 million barrels per day from the output level in August 2022, and the decision would take effect from November. Once this decision was implemented, oil prices continued to strengthen. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week. Crude oil inventories fell 1.4 million barrels to 429.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected an increase of 2.1 million barrels. The unexpected reversal of inventory data has greatly boosted the market. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 92.64 US dollars/barrel, up 4.19 US dollars or 4.7%; The cumulative increase since October has reached 16.5%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 97.92 US dollars/barrel, up 3.50 US dollars or 3.7%. Since October, it has risen 15% accumulatively, and the comprehensive crude oil variety change rate was 0.59%. It is estimated that the retail price of the current round of refined oil will rise by about 15 RMB/ ton, with the adjustment range less than 40 RMB/ ton. The zero selling price of the current round of refined oil will be stranded.

Recently, the wholesale price trend of domestic refined oil has been divided. The operating rate of domestic main refineries has not changed much. In some regions, the epidemic situation has been repeated, the demand for gasoline has declined, and the price of gasoline has declined; With the decline of domestic temperature, the construction of outdoor engineering infrastructure and other industries has increased. In addition, with the advent of the autumn harvest season, the demand for diesel oil has risen, and the price of diesel oil has risen. The Twentieth National Congress is about to be held. Some units of local refineries and main refineries will be limited in production, and the operating rate may decline slightly. As of September 9, the diesel price was 8,885 RMB/ ton, and the gasoline price was 8,606.6 RMB/ ton. Affected by demand, the recent trend of gasoline and diesel prices has diverged.

In the later stage, the supply side and demand side of the oil market will continue to play a game. The short-term oil price may still have some upside space, supported by the supply side benefits such as the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and OPEC production reduction. However, in the medium and long term, the oil price may face the pressure of macroeconomic negative and demand decline risks, and the possibility of a significant rise in the later stage is not high. Domestic diesel demand has risen, but gasoline demand is limited, and China domestic gasoline and diesel market trends are divided in the short term.

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