SunSirs: The Aluminum Price Rose Slightly on the 26th, and Low Inventory Was the Main Supporting Factor

https://www.chemnet.com   Oct 27,2022 SunSirs

　　According to the data from SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on October 26 was 18,656.67 RMB/ton, up 0.30% daily; The price was 1.63% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

　　In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market was 17,450 RMB/ton at the starting point of recent recovery (July 14, 2022), and the recent recovery is up 6.92%. On the whole, it is now in the stage of platform shock after warming up.

　　Industry data list

　　According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative output of alumina in China from January to September 2022 is 61.471 million tons, up 4.4% year on year; In September, China's alumina output was 7.052 million tons, up 7.5% year on year.

　　From January to September, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 29.875 million tons, up 2.8% year on year; Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in September was 3.421 million tons, up 9.3% year on year.

　　From January to September, the cumulative output of aluminum products was 45.713 million tons, down 0.9% year on year. Among them, the aluminum production in September was 5.432 million tons, up 2.6% year on year.

　　From January to September, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.062 million tons, up 15.6% year on year. Among them, the aluminum alloy output in September was 1.098 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 24.1%.

　　Import and export data

　　From January to September 2022, China imported 362,000 tons of aluminum ingots, a year-on-year decrease of 67.91%. Among them, China imported 64,700 tons of aluminum ingots in September, an increase of 32.01% month on month and a decrease of 32.67% year on year.

　　From January to September 2022, China exported 192,300 tons of aluminum ingots, an increase of 187,100 tons year-on-year. Among them, China exported 1,900 tons of aluminum ingots in September 2022, a month on month decrease of 68.64%.

　　Inventory data

　　According to the inventory data, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main domestic market fell month on month. On the 24th, the mainstream social inventory was about 623,000 tons, compared with 667,000 tons on the 8th, and more than 40,000 tons were destocked, close to about 610,000 tons before the National Day.

　　Market outlook

　　At present, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the low inventory has a certain support for the aluminum price. In the short term, it is expected that the trend will still be dominated by sideways shocks.

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