SunSirs: Natural Rubber is Expected to Continue to Decline in the Short Term

https://www.chemnet.com   Apr 20,2023 SunSirs

　　On April 17th, the benchmark price of natural rubber for SunSirs was 11260.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of -2.31% compared to the beginning of this month (11526.00 RMB/ton).

　　According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, natural rubber in China has been fluctuating and declining since the sharp decline at the end of January 2023. Domestic (Baodao) full latex in East China experienced a significant drop of 1000 RMB/ton in 3 and a half months, a decrease of 8.08%. The price of 11210 RMB/ton on April 7 is the lowest level in the natural rubber market since the market price reached the lowest level of 11170 RMB/ton on October 31, 2022. The market continues to be pessimistic. Compared to previous years from 2021 to 2022, natural rubber in the first quarter of 2023 did not break out of the sharp upward trend of global low production in previous years. Instead of rising, it continued to decline for more than two months.

　　The prominent current situation of natural rubber is the continuous accumulation of spot stocks, and although the operating rate of downstream product enterprises has occasionally increased, the sustainability is not strong. The transaction volume in the automotive/passenger vehicle market has decreased, resulting in a weak overall bullish atmosphere in the market.

　　At the same time, some positive factors in the market have also emerged, including an increase in tire production in the first quarter, a significant increase in sales of new energy vehicles, and several tire factories' good sales in the market and an increase in tire prices. Currently, it is not enough to offset the negative factors caused by the accumulation of spot inventory and continued weak demand. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to decline mainly.

　　It is worth noting that the production of new rubber in domestic and foreign production areas is expected to increase significantly from next month. If orders continue to follow poorly, then the market for natural rubber will be difficult to be optimistic for a long time.

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