SunSirs: Ethylene Glycol Will Mainly Fluctuate and Consolidate in the Future Market

https://www.chemnet.com   Apr 26,2023 SunSirs

　　Overview of ethylene glycol market

　　According to data from SunSirs, on April 25th, the average price of domestic ethylene glycol processed with oil was 4,153.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the market average price of 4,158.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

　　Ethylene glycol inventory remained high

　　As of April 24th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at East China Main Port was 1.0763 million tons, which was 44100 tons higher than 1.0321 million tons on March 23rd. Currently, inventory is relatively high.

　　International CIF price down

　　On April 24th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 505 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month; The CIF Southeast Asia price was 523 US dollars per ton.

　　The supply was still loose, and the expected conversion to production needs to be actually implemented

　　The operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol units has slightly increased to 60% with the production of new units and the restart of coal chemical plants. In terms of imports, the import volume in March slightly increased to around 520,000 tons with the arrival of Iranian goods at the port. In addition, the port's shipping speed is starting to decline, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory slightly.

　　Downstream demand was weak

　　Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance increased, and the polyester load continued to decline, mainly because the terminal was temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine had decreased. Although there were many new polyester production units recently, which to some extent offset some of the reduced production load, the overall downstream demand was weak.

　　Weak upward momentum on the spot end

　　At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories have production reduction plans, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.

　　Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time. Currently, it mainly relies on the increase in equipment maintenance scale and the reduction in supply, coupled with the weakening of supply caused by medium to long-term production changes and the expected support of downstream demand that may improve; it’s still needed to wait and see the specific performance, after all, the inventory data is not optimistic.

　　It is expected that in the short term, the probability of ethylene glycol trading sideways will increase, with an average price range of around 3,950-4,200 RMB/ton.

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