SunSirs: The Natural Rubber Market Rebounded after a Decline in mid December

https://www.chemnet.com   Dec 22,2023 SunSirs

　　According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market rebounded after a decline in mid December. The spot rubber market in China was around 12,670 RMB/ton on December 21 and around 12,470 RMB/ton on December 11, with an increase of 1.60%.

　　In mid December, natural rubber first fell and then rose. The Shanghai rubber 05 contract fell from around 13,600 RMB/ton to around 13,400 RMB/ton, and then rose to around 13,800 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 11,700-11,800 RMB/ton, bulk at around 10,200-10,300 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 9,700-9,800 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 9,600-9,800 RMB/ton.

　　Supply side: Raw materials from Thailand and Vietnam production areas will gradually enter a reduction period, and factories will gradually enter a reserve period; Due to the impact of typhoon weather, the production of raw materials in the domestic Hainan production area has been hindered; The Yunnan production area has entered a period of complete cessation of harvesting. Before the new year, the processing plant's enthusiasm for rubber collection and production increased, supporting the natural rubber market. As of December 17th, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 668,500 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons compared to the previous period. Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and the rate of total inventory reduction has slowed down.

　　On the demand side: Recently, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises has fallen, inventory is high, and the demand for rubber is weak. The operating load of all steel tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%; Half steel tire enterprises have sufficient foreign trade orders, centralized production, and high operating rates. The operating load of half steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is about 80%.

　　Import and export: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in November, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. From January to November, China imported a total of 7.229 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The export volume of rubber tires from China in November was 760,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%; The export amount was 13,416.33 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of rubber tires from China was 8.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%; The export amount was 142,716.27 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%.

　　In the near future, domestic and foreign raw material output will be limited, and Yunnan region will enter a comprehensive shutdown period. Some production areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and Hainan will enter a shutdown period due to weather and other reasons; Half steel tire enterprises have sufficient foreign trade orders, high operating rates, and limited support for the rubber market; Recently, some companies have been stocking up before the holiday, and it is expected that the natural rubber spot market will fluctuate and rise in late December.

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