SunSirs: Procurement was not Active before May Day, China Local Refined Gasoline and Diesel Market Declines

https://www.chemnet.com   Apr 25,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices have recently slightly declined. As of 24, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 9,091.2 RMB/ton, with a weekly price decline of 2.06%; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,452.4 RMB/ton, with a weekly price decline of 1.58%.

Cost side: easing of geopolitical relations and slight decrease in crude oil prices

As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $83.36/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $88.42/barrel. The weekly price slightly decreased by 2.30%, and the cost price fell, which brought some negative impact on the domestic gasoline and diesel refining market. The slight decline in the crude oil market is mainly due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the flattening of conflict risk premiums. On the one hand, the risk of conflict in the Middle East region has decreased, and the market expects that the possibility of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports escalating has also decreased. As the market's concerns slow down, the positive international oil supply has dissipated, to some extent smoothing out the risk premium of crude oil. On the other hand, the signals released by the Federal Reserve to the market have led investors to generally worry that the interest rate cut cycle may not arrive so quickly; In addition, a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday, April 17th, showed a significant increase in US crude oil inventories last week. As a result, the international oil price trend has declined, and costs are facing weakened support from the domestic refined oil market.

Supply side: Some equipment maintenance and refining plants are experiencing a decline in production

Recently, some major refining facilities in East and Northeast China have entered maintenance, while some refineries in North China have seen a decrease in load. The operating rates of their main refineries have also decreased. Shandong's refining capacity and maintenance coexist, with an average operating rate of around 60%. However, refining profits still affect the production enthusiasm of refineries, and the operating load of local refineries remains fluctuating at a low level. The slight decrease in the supply of refined oil has a certain supportive effect on the price of refined oil, and the decline in the local refined gasoline and diesel market is limited.

Demand side: Purchasing before the holiday fell short of expectations, and the market trend was suppressed

In terms of gasoline, the May Day holiday is approaching, but intermediaries are not actively purchasing, coupled with high gasoline prices, the gasoline market has slightly declined this week. In terms of diesel, there is not much change in the operating rate of outdoor projects, logistics and transportation are relatively normal, and there is not much change in diesel demand. However, due to the increased demand for refined oil in the Asian region, the export volume of gasoline and diesel increased significantly in March, which boosted the domestic refined oil market prices. Overall, the change in the refined diesel market is not significant.

At present, the environment in which crude oil operates is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement is being suppressed. However, geopolitical risks have not been lifted. Coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will support crude oil prices. From a domestic perspective, it is difficult to see an increase in the operating rate of refineries in the short term. However, with the arrival of small and long holidays, there will be an increase in residents' travel. In addition, with the rising temperature, there will be an increase in the use of oil, and the demand for gasoline will improve. In the later stage, there will be an upward trend in the gasoline market; There is not much change in diesel demand, and holiday hazardous chemical vehicles are limited. It is expected that the short-term diesel market will be mainly volatile.

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