SunSirs: Expected Increase in Demand during Summer Peak Season, with Crude Oil Jumping nearly 3%

https://www.chemnet.com   Jun 12,2024 SunSirs

On June 10th, international crude oil futures saw a significant jump, with the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract at $77.74 per barrel, an increase of $2.21 or 2.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.63 per barrel, an increase of $2.01 or 2.5%. Oil prices have reached their highest level in a week, recovering most of last week's decline. The main reason is that the summer consumption peak season brings confidence to the market.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent crude oil prices will rise to $86 per barrel

The market is generally expecting an increase in summer demand for crude oil, and investors generally believe that with the arrival of the peak summer driving season, demand will become active, leading to a significant decrease in oil inventories.

Especially a recent report from Goldman Sachs has brought confidence to the market. Goldman Sachs analysts stated in the report that they expect Brent crude oil to rise to $86 per barrel in the third quarter. This price level is nearly 7% higher than last Friday's Brent crude oil, mainly based on the transportation demand during the peak summer driving season and the judgment of increased refrigeration demand.

The Goldman Sachs report also stated that strong summer transportation demand may lead to a shortage of 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter. The bank believes that $75 is the bottom line for Brent crude oil and insists on its price range forecast of $75 to $90 per barrel. On the one hand, the actual demand for crude oil is influenced by prices, often leading to a rebound in demand when prices fall. On the other hand, the expected growth in demand from major economic powers has brought positive news to the oil market.

The strengthening of the US dollar and the long-term high interest rates of the Federal Reserve will still suppress oil prices

On Monday, the US dollar continued to strengthen, rising to a month high against a basket of other currencies. A stronger US dollar would lower the valuation of crude oil priced in US dollars and make buyers holding other currencies appear more expensive, thereby suppressing oil demand.

In addition, investors are waiting for the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released this Wednesday to measure signals of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The two-day policy meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will be held, and the market generally expects its interest rate policy to remain unchanged. This means that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time, which will have a negative impact on oil prices.

SunSirs crude oil analysts believe that in the short to medium term, the crude oil market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the macro level is suppressed by the strong US dollar and high interest rates from the Federal Reserve. From a supply side perspective, although the OPEC+ production reduction policy has not been effectively deepened, the control over the supply side in the medium to long term will still play a role. The main factors supporting oil prices in the future will be the peak summer demand season, with Asian summer demand and North American driving season coming into play. Therefore, it is expected that there will be limited space for crude oil in the short term, and crude oil will continue to recover lost territory. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand game will continue, and the geopolitical situation will also play a role. It is highly likely that oil prices will maintain a high volatility pattern.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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