SunSirs: Wood Pulp Prices Continue to Weaken in China, with Short-term Price Fluctuations

https://www.chemnet.com   Jun 14,2024 SunSirs

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of coniferous wood pulp and broadleaf wood pulp are still in a downward trend this week. On June 13th, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong was 6,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the average price of 6,430 RMB/ton on June 8th. On June 13th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong was 5,780 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.52% compared to the average price of 5,810 RMB/ton on June 8th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot price of wood pulp has continued to decline this week. In terms of supply, due to supply disruptions from pulp mills in Canada, Chile, and Finland, coniferous wood pulp still remains tight. In the current situation where the price difference between domestic and international markets continues to widen, pulp factories are unwilling to ship domestically, and the willingness to receive goods domestically is also decreasing. Therefore, there may be expectations of a contraction in import volume in the future.

In terms of demand, the downstream is currently in the off-season, and paper profits remain low with many losses, so the acceptance of high priced wood pulp is relatively low. In addition, downstream production is relatively surplus, and the inventory pressure of paper mills remains high. The trend of accumulated inventory remains unchanged, and the total inventory of finished paper continues to break new highs.

In terms of port inventory, as of June 13, 2024, the sample inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 1.791 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous period. The inventory showed a narrow trend of destocking this week.

In terms of futures, the prices of wood pulp futures have fluctuated narrowly recently. On June 13th, the main contract of SP2409 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 6,078 RMB/ton, closed at 5,970 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,080 RMB/ton, with a daily decline of 0.47%. The trading volume was 286,600 lots, and the position was 225,446 lots.

SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that the current cost logic has always supported the center of gravity of pulp prices, and spot quotes remain strong. However, downstream willingness to receive goods has decreased, and there is a certain expectation of weak demand recovery. It will take time for the terminal to achieve improvement, and it is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will remain in a range of fluctuations in the short term.

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