SunSirs: Long Short Game, China Refined Gasoline and Diesel Market mainly Fluctuated

https://www.chemnet.com   Jul 05,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of domestic refined gasoline and diesel is mainly volatile. As of the 4th, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 8,626.4 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.80% this week; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,334 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.42% this week.

Cost side: Significant cost support from rising crude oil market

As of the 3rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $83.88 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $87.34 per barrel. Recently, the crude oil market has continued to rise. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation has resurfaced supply risks, and the supply and demand situation is favorable for the oil market. On the other hand, the Chinese economy continues to rebound and improve, coupled with the arrival of the peak oil consumption season in North America, which strongly supports oil prices, the crude oil market price trend is rising. The cost support is obvious, and the domestic refined oil market has slightly increased.

Supply side: There is not much change in the supply at the low level of refinery operation

Recently, there are still maintenance facilities in Shandong, and the operating rate of Shandong refineries has not changed much. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is maintained at around 53%, a low level in the past two years, providing bottom support for the Shandong refined oil market. The domestic refining profits have been severely squeezed, with a significant reduction in profits. The enthusiasm of refineries to start production is not high, and the supply of refined oil remains low. The local refining gasoline and diesel market is mainly volatile.

Demand side: gasoline demand is still acceptable, diesel demand is sluggish

In terms of gasoline, with the gradual opening of summer tourism and the significant increase in temperature, the use of car air conditioning has increased, leading to a slight increase in demand for gasoline and a slight rise in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, on the one hand, due to the impact of rainstorm in the south, the commencement of outdoor projects has declined significantly; On the other hand, agricultural diesel has come to an end, coupled with the impact of the fishing ban, the demand for diesel in the market is sluggish, and the price of diesel fluctuates at a low level.

Currently, geopolitical instability still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. The peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, but the continued rise of crude oil remains to be observed. Overall, high crude oil prices are mainly volatile. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries may slightly increase in the short term. With the increase of air conditioning usage in summer and the start of summer vacation, there may be an increase in residential travel, and gasoline demand is still guaranteed. There is still room for a slight increase in the gasoline market in the later stage; Diesel demand is sluggish, but diesel prices are at a low level, coupled with the support of the crude oil market, diesel prices may fluctuate narrowly.

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