SunSirs: Tin Prices Had Fallen This Week, and the Destocking Situation Is Expected to Be Supported

https://www.chemnet.com   Jul 22,2024 SunSirs

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1# tin ingot market in East China fell this week (7.12-7.19). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 275,460 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of this week was 261,610 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.03%.

Analysis review

The recent decline in tin prices was mainly influenced by fundamentals and macro sentiment. Recently, although the export of Indonesian tin ingots had not fully recovered, the marginal export volume had gradually increased, and the Myanmar mine had also increased due to the clearance of inventory from the beneficiation plant last month. The supply side support for tin prices had decreased. Lunxi significantly reduced its inventory at the beginning of the year, and its inventory had dropped to around 4,000 tons as of July 19th, with a reduction rate of nearly 50%. Domestic inventory reached a high of 19,400 tons at the end of May, and after a month of destocking, it dropped to 16,100 tons in July. Domestic and international destocking provided support for tin prices.

On the demand side, semiconductor consumption is expected to improve solder material consumption this year, but it had limited impact on overall demand as of July 19th. Domestic tinplate had shown some improvement driven by exports, but the accumulated inventory pressure was not small.

Market outlook

It is expected that the exchange will maintain a destocking status in the third quarter. The supply-demand contradiction is not severe, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term.

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