SunSirs: The BDO Market Was Weakly Declining

https://www.chemnet.com   Jul 29,2024 SunSirs

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 22nd to 26th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 9,000 RMB/ton to 8,985 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.16% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 17.67%. The domestic BDO market had shifted downwards, with light trading volume in spot orders. The actual follow-up of downstream terminals was average, and the purchasing and sales mentality of operators was bearish, with sporadic small spot orders negotiated for discounts, resulting in a downward shift in the market price range.

Analysis review

On the supply side and in terms of equipment: Shaanxi Black Cat's equipment stopped for agent replacement, but after some maintenance equipment was restarted in the early stage, the negative operation increased, and the market supply of goods showed an increasing trend, weakening the positive support from the supply side. The impact of favorable factors on the BDO supply side had weakened.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The maintenance of some PVC enterprises in Inner Mongolia had led to an increase in external sales of calcium carbide, and some enterprises had experienced an increase in load. The overall market supply was sufficient, and the calcium carbide market had narrowly declined. Raw material methanol: The methanol market was experiencing a narrow upward trend. As of 10:00 am on July 26th, the domestic methanol price at Taicang port was 2,530 RMB/ton. The cost impact of BDO was mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG spandex, PBT, and PBAT had seen a decline in market conditions, with most downstream terminals experiencing losses in profits. Under cost pressure, there was a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory. The demand side had bearish factors for the market of BDO.

Market outlook

Most maintenance devices will restart, and the market supply volume will increase significantly, with weak support from the supply side. Although the main downstream PTMEG maintenance equipment had also restarted, other downstream operations were average, with limited increase in raw material digestion and intensified pressure on the supply and demand sides. Sunsirs’ analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.

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