SunSirs: China Methanol Market is Experiencing a Narrow Upward Trend

https://www.chemnet.com   Jul 29,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 22nd to 26th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,495 RMB/ton to 2,525 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.17% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.20%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.93%. Narrow consolidation of the domestic methanol market. In recent times, downstream demand in China has remained weak, but the maintenance of some methanol plants, traders, and downstream purchases have provided a certain boost to the market, and the market has shown a weak rebound trend.

As of the close on July 26th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,488 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,514 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,484 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,514 RMB/ton at the end of the day, up 16 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement, an increase of 0.64%. The trading volume was 597,926 lots, and the position was 686,859 lots, with a daily increase of -50,740.

In terms of cost, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production. As the end of the month approaches, the number of coal mines that have completed production tasks and stopped production for maintenance is gradually increasing, and the overall coal supply level will be slightly reduced. Despite the prolonged high temperatures and accelerated coal consumption after the onset of the summer, the actual demand release is limited due to the constraints of high inventory in the middle and lower reaches, and coal mine transportation remains normalized. Some coal mines with significant price reductions in the early stages have experienced slight price corrections, while the overall pithead prices remain stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Huayi and Hongye have maintenance plans, resulting in a decrease in MTBE demand; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi formaldehyde plant reduces load and formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin plant shutdown, Qianjiang Jinhuarun plant restart, resulting in reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: The inventory of mainstream factories in Shandong is expected to decrease, while the maintenance plan for factories in East China is underway, resulting in a slight increase in chloride demand; Downstream acetic acid: Tianjian is shut down for maintenance. If there are not many unexpected failures in other devices, the demand for acetic acid will increase. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of Jinmei Huayu, Yunnan Qumei, Luxi Dawei, and Yunnan Yuntianhua facilities; Inner Mongolia Rongxin plant reduces production; The Inner Mongolia New Olympics facility has been restored. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of July 24th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 349.00-35.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 109-110 cents/gallon, up 5 cents/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 321.75-322.75 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

In the future forecast, the price of raw coal is slightly insufficient to drive methanol, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Although traditional downstream demand has increased, the magnitude is still limited. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly consolidate weakly.

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