SunSirs: China Domestic Methanol Market Fluctuates significantly in July

https://www.chemnet.com   Jul 31,2024 SunSirs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has shown a significant upward trend. From July 1st to 30th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market first rose from 2,532 RMB/ton and then fell to 2,465 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.63% during the period and a maximum amplitude of 4.18%. The price increased by 8.07% year-on-year.

In the first half of the month, the domestic methanol market mainly operated weakly and fluctuated. The overall supply of methanol in China is sufficient, with weak demand being the main factor.

In mid month, the domestic methanol market was sorted and operated within a certain range. The expected maintenance of some equipment in methanol production areas, coupled with low inventory levels in production enterprises, supports the improvement of the mainland market, but demand remains weak and growth is limited.

At the end of the month, the domestic methanol market fell from a high level, and the overall downstream demand has remained weak in recent times, with traders holding sufficient supply of goods.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic methanol market is experiencing a narrow consolidation. In recent times, downstream demand in China has remained weak, but the maintenance of some methanol plants, traders, and downstream purchases have provided a certain boost to the market, and the market has shown a weak rebound trend.

As of the close on July 30th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2409 for methanol futures opened at 2,481 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,484 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,446 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,448 RMB/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 42 RMB/ton or 1.69% compared to the previous trading day's settlement, with a trading volume of 547,371 lots and a holding volume of 745,081 lots, with a daily increase of 41,678.

In terms of cost, most coal mines in the production area are maintaining normal production. As the end of the month approaches, the number of coal mines that have completed production tasks and stopped production for maintenance is gradually increasing, and the overall coal supply level will be slightly reduced. Despite the prolonged high temperatures and accelerated coal consumption after the onset of the summer, the actual demand release is limited due to the constraints of high inventory in the middle and lower reaches, and coal mine transportation remains normalized. Some coal mines with significant price reductions in the early stages have experienced slight price corrections, while the overall pithead prices remain stable. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Huayi and Hongye have maintenance plans, resulting in a decrease in MTBE demand; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi formaldehyde plant reduces load and formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: Henan Xinlianxin plant shutdown, Qianjiang Jinhuarun plant restart, resulting in reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: The inventory of mainstream factories in Shandong is expected to decrease, while the maintenance plan for factories in East China is underway, resulting in a slight increase in chloride demand; Downstream acetic acid: Tianjian is shut down for maintenance. If there are not many unexpected failures in other devices, the demand for acetic acid will increase. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, maintenance of Jinmei Huayu, Yunnan Qumei, Luxi Dawei, and Yunnan Yuntianhua facilities; Inner Mongolia Rongxin plant reduces production; The Inner Mongolia New Olympics facility has been restored. The loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 29th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $347-348 per ton, a decrease of $2.5 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 103-104 cents/gallon, down 6 cents/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 320-321 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton.

In the future forecast, the price of raw coal is slightly insufficient to drive methanol, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Although traditional downstream demand has increased, the magnitude is still limited. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly consolidate weakly.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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