SunSirs: The Market of China Refined Petroleum Coke first Rose and then Fell in July

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 01,2024 SunSirs

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of locally refined petroleum coke first rose and then fell in July. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in July was 1,476.75 RMB/ton on July 31 and 1,471.25 RMB/ton on July 1, with a monthly increase of 0.37%.

On the cost side, the crude oil market experienced a significant decline in July. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has eased, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China's crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market.

Supply side: In early July, the inventory of petroleum coke in the local refining market was low, downstream demand was still acceptable, refinery shipments were still acceptable, and petroleum coke prices rose slightly; In mid to late July, downstream procurement intentions were average, and local refining manufacturers actively reduced prices and shipped petroleum coke. However, market trading was limited, and some shutdown inspection and cultivation plants resumed production of coke, resulting in an increase in domestic petroleum coke supply. Recently, the shipment of petroleum coke from ports has been active, coupled with the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at ports, the speed of destocking at ports has increased, and the overall inventory at ports has declined.

Demand side: Currently, the overall operating rate of the metal silicon market in Yunnan and Sichuan regions has not fluctuated much, and the operating rate is still close to full load operation. The construction of metal silicon in Xinjiang has been slightly reduced, and some large factories have stopped their metal silicon equipment for maintenance. Currently, construction is starting around the eighth floor. The trading atmosphere in the silicon metal market is relatively quiet, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment within the market, and insufficient support from downstream demand. At present, the demand for petroleum coke procurement from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

In July, the market for sulfur calcined coke declined. Currently, most companies are stabilizing their prices and shipping. Some companies have started pre-sales of orders for August, and the supply remains stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream negative electrode material market has slightly decreased, and companies are mainly observing and maintaining stability.

The electrolytic aluminum market continued to decline in July, and projects in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia have resumed production. A factory in Sichuan plans to resume production of 12.5W by the end of July and plans to take two months. The import window is currently closed. At present, the price of aluminum ingots has fallen to near the marginal cost, and the upstream raw material side is tight, which provides some support for the price. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and there is limited procurement in the petroleum coke market.

Currently, the production of locally refined petroleum coke continues to resume, and the market supply is gradually increasing. However, downstream demand is limited, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. It is expected that the locally refined petroleum coke market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

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