SunSirs: Tin Prices in July Fluctuated and Fell back Due to Macroeconomic Expectations

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 02,2024 SunSirs

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1# tin ingot market in East China fell this month (7.1-7.31), with an average market price of 274,490 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 247,760 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.48% in the month.

Analysis review

Affected by overseas macro sentiment this month, tin prices had fluctuated and fallen. Tin prices haD fluctuated significantly, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts had not yet landed, and potential risks on the supply side of fundamentals still existed.

At the mining end, supply issues will continue to exist in this year, and there is strong uncertainty about the resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar. Currently, negotiations on the ownership of mining rights are ongoing, and there is no clear news of resumption of production. However, the tin ore production in the Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa continues to increase, which to some extent compensates for the reduction of tin ore in Myanmar, and the overall tin ore situation is not overly tense.

On the refining side, the operating rate of smelters has not significantly declined this year, and domestic refined tin production remains high. In addition, the export of Indonesian tin ingots is gradually recovering, and the supply expectation for Indonesia in the second half of the year is expected to significantly increase compared to the first half. We can pay attention to the import volume of Indonesian tin ingots in August.

On the demand side, the consumption of solder has slightly decreased year-on-year, while the consumption of tin bars has been maintained, and the consumption of tin foil has rapidly declined. Recently, it is a low season for demand, and domestic terminal consumption is still sluggish. Downstream consumers are cautious and cautious in purchasing. The consumption of electronic products is relatively strong, and photovoltaic orders have significantly declined, with photovoltaic orders decreasing by 30% -40% month on month in June.

Market outlook

It is expected that there will be little support on the demand side in the short term. Recently, due to the decline in tin prices, a large amount of Shanghai tin has been destocked, and inventory has provided support for tin prices. In the short term, it mainly operates in a volatile manner.

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