SunSirs: The Operating Rate of Tire Enterprises has Rebounded, and the Price of Natural Rubber has slightly Increased in China

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 08,2024 SunSirs

The price of natural rubber increased slightly during July 30 to August 5.

As of August 5th, the standard rubber (TSR20) price index was reported at 1,151.72, up 1.67% from the previous release date (July 29th, the same below); The price index of mixed glue (20#) was reported at 1,156.29, up 1.16%.

In terms of price, the average price of standard glue and mixed glue has slightly increased. The average price of standard adhesive (TSR20) fluctuates within the range of $1,673.14-1,707.50 per ton; The average price of mixed glue (20 #) fluctuates between $1710.00-1740.00 per ton.

On the supply side, the raw material production capacity in Southeast Asia and Hainan and Yunnan production areas in China has been basically released, and the overall upstream supply is becoming loose.

On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has slightly increased. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of August 1st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all steel tire sample enterprises was 59.46%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points month on month and a decrease of 2.15 percentage points year-on-year; The capacity utilization rate of semi steel tire sample enterprises was 80.17%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points month on month and 1.79 percentage points year-on-year. Li Zhi, a senior analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the production scheduling of sample companies undergoing maintenance within the week has recovered, driving the overall recovery of production capacity utilization rate of sample companies. At the end of July, multiple companies reported relatively concentrated shipments and a slight decrease in inventory.

In terms of automobiles, according to data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in July 2024, China's heavy-duty truck market sold approximately 59,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of 17% month on month and 4% year-on-year. From January to July 2024, China's heavy-duty truck market sold approximately 563,500 vehicles of various types, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with a net increase of nearly 14,000 vehicles, and the cumulative growth rate further narrowed compared to January to June. The demand for new car purchases in the highway freight industry has basically hit rock bottom. In the market environment of low freight rates and low returns, the prosperity of the freight industry is relatively low, and overall terminal demand is weak.

Based on comprehensive analysis, global production areas are in a seasonal phase of increasing volume, and the overall supply of natural rubber is relatively loose. Short term raw material prices have stopped falling and risen, with a slight rebound in rubber prices. However, there are still expectations of a weakening of raw materials in the future, and it is expected that the overall rubber prices will remain weak.

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