SunSirs: Corrugated Paper Price Remains Stable with an Upward Trend in China, and is temporarily Consolidating in the Short term

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 09,2024 SunSirs

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has been stable with small fluctuations recently, and the price has slightly increased. On August 8th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,604 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.23% compared to the average price of 2,598 RMB/ton on August 1st.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region first decreased and then increased in August. On August 8th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,493 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to the average price on August 1st. From the supply side, due to the off-season for waste paper recycling in August, the amount of waste yellow cardboard recycling is running at a low level. In addition, the reluctance of packaging stations to sell has increased, resulting in a slight decrease in the amount of waste yellow cardboard received by paper mills. On the demand side, the Mid Autumn Festival stocking season has already started ahead of schedule, and paper mills have a strong intention to increase their waste paper reserves. The overall demand for waste yellow cardboard may increase, leading to a rebound in waste paper prices.

In terms of Supply: The current stable operating load rate of paper mills has resulted in sufficient supply of spot goods. Multiple bases of large-scale paper mills have announced price increases on August 1st, with an increase of 20-30 RMB/ton. However, due to inconsistent policy implementation, most paper mills have stabilized their prices and shipped goods, resulting in a narrow shift in the focus of transactions in some areas of the market. However, the sales and shipment speed of paper companies has not accelerated, and most paper companies have high inventory levels, resulting in a flat market supply.

In terms of demand: With the change of seasons, it is expected that demand will gradually transition from the off-season to the peak season, which may lead to an increase in demand. However, the current demand from end-users is insufficient, and downstream packaging factories have mediocre order performance. Some manufacturers have supplemented their raw paper inventory appropriately based on the order situation, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Therefore, prices remain stable with small fluctuations and price increases are relatively small.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current average price of waste yellow cardboard in the domestic market is rising, and the cost side has some support for the price of corrugated paper. In addition, with the early opening of Mid Autumn Festival orders, there are still incremental expectations on the demand side. However, due to the inconsistent implementation of the policy of increasing the scale of paper mills, the cautious attitude of industry players towards the future trend is not reduced, and it is expected that the price of corrugated paper will temporarily stabilize and consolidate in the short term.

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