SunSirs: Rubber Lacks Sustained Upward Momentum in China, and Prices May Continue to Fluctuate widely

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 12,2024 SunSirs

Market dynamics: According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on August 7th, China imported a total of 613,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in July 2024, a decrease of 3.2% from the same period in 2023, which was 633,000 tons. From January to July, China imported a total of 3.897 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a decrease of 16% compared to 4.639 million tons in the same period of 2023.

Viewpoint: High price testing of raw material production capacity will be the focus of this year's game. The demand side performance is flat, and the differentiation pattern of all steel and semi steel continues. The inventory of all steel is at a high level during the same period, and downstream demand for essential purchases is maintained. Qingdao has accumulated inventory. The tight supply of mixed spot goods has supported the bottom of prices, and the price of US dollar glue has increased.

Supply is in an upward phase, with expectations of continued looseness in supply and demand. In the short term, due to weather disturbances, the release of limited raw materials for new rubber has stabilized. At present, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, mainly following the overall trend of commodities. There is a lack of sustained upward bullish drivers in the short term, or a continuation of a wide range of fluctuations. The upward trend of the center of gravity of Tianjiao in the medium and long term has not changed, and we should seize the opportunity to make a long term correction. Pay attention to NR reversal during the month. In the short term, focus on the pace of production volume in the production area and the situation of Thai mixed customs.

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