SunSirs: Crude Oil is Falling, the Toluene Market Continues to Decline

https://www.chemnet.com   Aug 15,2024

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the toluene market has been declining overall recently (8.2-8.9). The benchmark price of toluene was 7380 RMB/ton on August 5, and the benchmark price of toluene was 7270 RMB/ton on August 9, a decrease of 1.49% within the cycle.

The toluene market continued to operate weakly in this cycle, and the market price fluctuated downward. The decline in crude oil prices during the week dragged down the market sentiment, and the overall market atmosphere was bearish.

The overall demand was weak, the gasoline blending industry had low purchasing enthusiasm, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm was low. Combined with the weakening of the macro-environment, the market was bearish. As of August 9, the mainstream quotation range in East China was 7220-7250 RMB/ton, a cumulative decrease of 70-100 RMB/ton compared with last week.

Cost side: Crude oil prices fell during this cycle. On the one hand, OPEC+'s 2.2 million barrels per day production cut will be implemented until the end of September, but it may gradually increase production from October depending on market conditions.

This news is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, the poor non-farm payrolls data released by the United States in July and the rising unemployment rate, coupled with poor global economic data, have aggravated market concerns about the demand outlook, increased negative pressure at the psychological level, and the crude oil market has declined. Overall, the crude oil market has fallen sharply during the cycle, and the crude oil change rate has remained negative. As of August 9, international crude oil futures rose.

The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$76.84 per barrel, an increase of US$0.65 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$79.66 per barrel, an increase of US$0.50 or 0.6%.

Supply side: Sinopec's toluene quotation was partially lowered this week, with slight differences in the extent of the reduction in various places, and the reduction was small. At present, the company's operation is normal, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly for self-use, and the production and sales are stable. Among them, the East China company quoted 7150 RMB/ton, the North China company quoted 7350 RMB/ton, the South China company quoted 7200-7250 RMB/ton, and the Central China company quoted 7200 RMB/ton.

Demand side: Paraxylene prices continue to fall Toluene demand support is weak

On August 12, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, and the current execution price is 8,500 RMB/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical units are operating stably and sales are normal. As of August 8, the CFR China closing price was US$983/ton, down US$22/ton from last week.

The Asian toluene market was closed on Friday (August 9) due to a public holiday. On August 8, the closing price: the closing price of FOB Korea in August was 884-886 US dollars/ton; the closing price of CFR China in September was 872-874 US dollars/ton.

Market outlook: Crude oil has been weak in recent days, providing limited support to the toluene market. Affected by the macroeconomic atmosphere, the overall toluene market atmosphere has been weak recently, with low market operation intentions and limited trading. Although prices are at a relatively low level this year, some regions have a certain intention to replenish inventory, and the market atmosphere is acceptable. However, overall, downstream demand is still weak, and demand support is insufficient. Overall, there are still negative factors in the toluene market, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong. It is expected that the trend will be mainly narrow fluctuations in the short term. Focus on downstream replenishment in the future.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with?support@SunSirs.com

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